Well, we have to all admit that the new tools and technology choices are positive and exciting. Here's my humble opinion.

I'm a "what have you done for me lately" guy. I tend to start with the project requirements, and THEN decide on the technology that makes sense for it. Because of that, I often mix technologies. In fact it is common for us to have HTML/Javascript/AJAX/Flash/PHP on the vast majority of our new pages.

I like Flash. It's simple, small, and accomplishes highly creative and highly technical feats. It is a major force. Ask anyone doing web ads what they think of Flash. I'm not going to let the word "proprietary" scare me. Java and OSX are also proprietary, and I'm not concerned about them either.

I think the real danger is "predatory", which Microsoft clearly is. Their intentions are as dishonest as any technology company on the planet. Considering that HP/Dell are going back to XP speaks volumes about the direction Microsoft is going. Using .Net or ASP is (IMO) the worst possible technology choice for the web.

As far as Silverlight being real competition to Flash? Well, forget the creative community, they hate Microsoft with a real passion. Those Mac commercials are only funny because we all know how totally true they are. Even if Silverlight works (which currently it doesn't), no one creative will develop anything on it. All those excited Microsoft programmers cannot change that fact.

On a positive note, I really like AJAX. It does some things I can't do in Flash. Specifically, it's not anchored to the movie space. And people are finally turning Javascript back on. That's got your client-side. Java only makes sense to me as a server-side technology. I like Ruby and Python, but they don't give me anything I can't get elsewhere, so why bother?

I think Flex is interesting in the RIA arena, because it is designed to work together with other technologies, like PHP, Java, and AJAX. I'm giving Flex a VERY serious look right now, as it's a technology combiner and a technology partner. You're not locked in. But RIAs are not for everyone.

Apollo is really a desktop development play. We'll have to see what kind of place it makes for itself, but it's not really on the web. It can gather data from the web, but so can most desktop apps. By the same logic, Javascript for a desktop app doesn't make a lot of sense to me either.

We're in a time of buzz. It'll be many months before we get past the hype to see who's serious and who's not, and what technologies have value to the task. But if I had to make a guess, PHP and AJAX will continue to expand, and Flash will keep on being the creative outlet for the forseeable future. Why? Simply because they fill the current business needs quite nicely.

-- Cole



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