I think you're painting online video with an incredibly wide brush here, and it's pretty distortionary. These questions were once asked about text online, too, and the answer is that any of a number of business models have arisen. Content that has been worth money and isn't value-added through linking, such as books and academic journals, has successfully followed system of paying for titles/editions/subscriptions. Some text is most value-added when it can be linked...like news. That's followed some flavor of ad-supported. The overwhelming majority of text on the web is not seen as worth buying and/or is so ephemeral that its only value is in being linked to for a short period of time. It's remained "free", in the sense that its authors tend to absorb costs for keeping it online.
Video will be the same way. If YouTube is losing money, it doesn't mean that the advertising model is dead. What it means is something already known-- ads don't work with ephemeral content. -- Rhett. http://www.weatherlight.com > Rereading my post, my final comments were supposed to be questions, > not statements. > Here are some more: > As a layman, I don't understand how people will make money with > advertising on online video. Surely at some point soon, pay per view > will become the norm? Will the recession bring this on? With things > like paypal and google checkout, isn't paying for things much easier > now? Easy enough to make it worth the viewer's while doing it? > And will that lead to a lot more long-form content, so people feel > they're getting their money's worth? > > On 8-Apr-09, at 3:40 PM, Michael Sullivan wrote: > >> in other news... >> >> http://blog.streamingmedia.com/the_business_of_online_vi/2009/04/disney-says-hulu-running-out-of-cash.html >> >> ;) >> >> On Wed, Apr 8, 2009 at 4:48 PM, Rupert <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >>> This is from the Seattle Times last week. Credit Suisse analyst says >>> YouTube will cost Google $470m. Bandwidth costs them $360m, content >>> rights cost them $252m, but sales from advertising are only $240m >>> (um, >>> "only"). >>> >>> Oops. >>> >>> If YouTube and Google can't make it work, how the hell is anybody >>> else >>> supposed to? >>> >>> Google is actually hurting the whole online video market by providing >>> video as a free 'loss leader'? While they can afford to prop up >>> YouTube's failed business model by subsidizing their massive losses >>> to >>> the tune of half a billion a year, how can anybody else innovate >>> sensible revenue models for online video? The "Free" internet is a >>> massive illusion. >>> >>> http://tinyurl.com/c2akgl >>> >>> *YouTube set to lose $470M; most ad spots going unsold* >>> >>> According to a Credit Suisse analyst, the most popular video Web site >>> owned by the richest Web site Google will lose $470 million this >>> year because it sells advertising only on a fraction of its pages. >>> >>> For a site that generates as much online traffic as YouTube, it would >>> seem a no-brainer that profit is streaming in. >>> >>> But according to a Credit Suisse analyst, the most popular video Web >>> site owned by the richest Web site Google will lose $470 million >>> this year because it sells advertising only on a fraction of its >>> pages. >>> >>> YouTube sells ads on less than 3 percent of the Web pages that could >>> carry commercial messages, analyst Spencer Wang wrote Friday in a >>> note >>> to clients. To boost that percentage, Google needs to standardize ad >>> formats and better demonstrate that ads on YouTube help sell >>> products, >>> he wrote. >>> >>> Weakness at YouTube led Wang to cut his 2009 profit estimate for >>> Google to $4.68 a share from $4.83, according to the report. >>> >>> Google stock has fallen more than a third from its 52-week high last >>> May, hurt by slowing growth in the online-ad market and by the >>> decline >>> in the broader stock market. >>> >>> "Despite the growth of YouTube's user base, there is little evidence >>> to suggest Google has been able to materially monetize this usage," >>> Wang wrote. "In light of the current ad recession, experimental >>> budgets are being trimmed." >>> >>> YouTube's sales will rise about 20 percent to $240.9 million this >>> year, Wang estimated. >>> >>> The company may spend $360.4 million for bandwidth to distribute its >>> video, and $252.9 million to pay content owners for the rights to >>> show >>> their material, he wrote. >>> >>> ------------------------------------ >>> >>> Yahoo! Groups Links >>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] >> >> >> >> ------------------------------------ >> >> Yahoo! Groups Links >> >> >> >> > > > > ------------------------------------ > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > >
