John Coviello wrote:
That is one of the big arguments "skeptics" use against the reality of cold fusion. If it actually works as proponents claim, why isn't one of those always eager venture capitalists funding research into this technology that could be the next big thing with a massive return on investment? Not a bad question really.
I agree it is not a bad question, and both sides can learn from the answer. However, it tells us more about the nature of modern corporations than about the legitimacy of cold fusion. As you said, the Japanese development of hybrid automobiles shows the weakness of this assertion. There are many other well-known examples, such as the fact that both IBM and Hewlett-Packard developed personal computers long before the Apple was introduced, but they did not market them.
My answer would be that cold fusion is still in the basic research stage, just starting to enter commercialization stage, so it hasn't really caught the attention of the venture capitalists yet . . .
Right. I would go even further. At this stage it may be inappropriate to consider commercialization. Cold fusion is still at the very basic research level, making it the sort of thing that cannot be patented. Plus, of course, the patent office itself is blocking progress. It also appears to be the sort of thing that is best researched using the fully open academic model, rather than secret or semisecret corporate R&D.
Some corporations are researching cold fusion in a semi-secret matter. I wish them the best of luck, but I fear they may fail because the basic science has not been firmly established.
Actually, we are starting to see some seed money flow into cold fusion with an angel investor funding Entergenics of Israel and Solar Limited buying D2Fusion and perhaps investors providing funding to iESi (who knows?). So, we slowly but surely seem to be turning that corner.
As I said, the fundamentals have not been established well enough, so I am a little bit afraid these ventures may fail the way the NEDO project did. Cold fusion might not survive another fiasco.
Our corporations and venture capitalists will get into the game when it is obvious that money can be made.
Yes. All corporations worldwide will do that.
Things can change quickly, so be prepared for cold fusion to suddenly get really big if something commercial hit the markets in coming years.
I do not think we need "something commercial." A very convincing demonstration cell at one laboratory would suffice, if it were presented correctly. James Patterson might have ended the cold fusion controversy in a few months, if he had only taken steps to demonstrate his cell with good test equipment to a wide audience. Mizuno might have convinced the world in four days, if he had called in other scientists and set up proper monitoring equipment when his cell began to produce massive heat after death. The history of cold fusion is littered with lost opportunities, bungled projects, mismarketing and other tragic might-have-beens. I suppose that is true of most technologies, such as bicycles or computers, but the mistakes made in cold fusion have infinitely greater consequences. If cold fusion perishes, much of the earth might be destroyed by global warming.
- Jed
