Jones Beene <[email protected]> wrote: > *But somebody must lose** in this picture**.** The big question mark: can > th**e upcoming** tidal wave** be stopped by OPEC/Big Oil** …** or is it > too late for** them**?* > > My answer based on history:
No, it cannot be stopped by them, and yet, no, it is not too late. What I mean is, if they act now they might slow it down, stop it, or co-opt it, but history shows they will probably ignore this development until it is far too late. Look at similar examples such as: The replacement of local passenger railroads by automobiles, circa 1920 - 1930. The replacement of long distance passenger trains and ocean liners by airplanes 1945 - 1960. This led to the final collapse of the Pennsylvania Railroad, which was the biggest and most powerful corporation on earth in 1920. The replacement of mainframe and minicomputers by personal computers, software, and by MPP small computers such as the Googleplex, 1980 - 2000. This bankrupted DEC, Data General and it almost bankrupted IBM, which was an astounding turn of events. The destruction of the steel industry and the recent bankruptcy of GM, both caused in part by legacy problems such as large numbers of retirees. This problem was entirely foreseeable, but it is hard to think of a way it might have been circumvented. There are many less well known examples. Very often, the most powerful and prosperous corporations in one era have been destroyed in 10 or 20 years by changes in the marketplace or by new technology. The usual narrative is that the new technology was unforeseen, but in fact, if you read accounts of these eras, in most cases the new technology was widely predicted, and in some cases it was even invented by the companies it later destroyed. The IBM PC is a good example. If, today, a power company or an oil company were to invest in cold fusion and bring it to fruition, I have no doubt this would end up destroying that company. But they might not agree with me, so they might do it. If you had told an IBM executive in 1980 that the contract they just negotiated with a two-bit company called Microsoft for a minor product -- an operating system -- would nearly bankrupt the company in the 1990, that executive would think you are crazy. The book "The Black Swan" is full stories of events that supposedly came out of left field and surprised the experts. The author is wrong. Most of the ones relating to technology did not come out of left field, and did not surprise the experts. Most of them did not surprise me, personally. I knew more about some of these developments when they happened than the author does now, and I spotted several mistakes in the book. Complete surprises are rare in technology. Cold fusion was a complete surprise, but after 1991 it was obvious that it might become a practical source of energy. If it does, people who are surprised will have only themselves to blame. They should have paid attention, and they should have stopped inventing ridiculous reasons to deny the facts. History shows that the people running oil companies and the like will probably not look closely or take the technology seriously until it is too late. It will be too late when the public becomes aware of the fact that cold fusion is real and that in the near term it has the potential to save every person thousands of dollars a year. Once that becomes generally known, no power on earth will be able to stop the research, development and deployment of cold fusion. People such as the Koch brothers will spend billions of dollars trying to stop it with PR campaigns and by buying Members of Congress, but they will overwhelmed by a tsunami of public opinion. - Jed
