--- On Wed, 9/3/08, Taylor J. Smith <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> From: Taylor J. Smith <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Subject: [Vo]:Sunspotless
> To: [email protected]
> Date: Wednesday, September 3, 2008, 5:05 AM
> Jones Beene on 2 Sep 2008 wrote:
>
> ``One interesting point which I am surprised is not often
> mentioned in this polarized debate:
>
> Blow up the third chart on Michael's cited reference,
> and
> contemplate the full implication of the "Maunder
> Minimum"
> and the so-called "little ice age" ...
>
> ... and the likelihood that we could be on the brink of
> a repeat of this in 2008...
>
> If it turns out that what humans are doing to the
> environment is in fact - on the bottom line, and after
> all is said and done - NOT harmful in itself due to these
> unusual circumstance - and that wanton CO2 release is
> simply forestalling another "little ice age" then
> - YES -
> that can seen by most of us non-specialists as a *good
> thing*, at least in the short term.
>
> However, it does not follow that what Algore is promoting
> is itself unscientific. Quite the contrary.
>
> Like it or not, he IS the spokesperson for the majority
> of specialists in the field - although admittedly there
> exists a strong and vocal minority of specialists who do
> not go along with most of it and especially the way it
> has been politicized.
>
> The bigger question for the rest of us - what is the true
> situation? -- and the true unpoliticized risk of this
> situation? -- i.e. IF both Algore AND also his critics are
> partly correct in that yes, humans are rapidly changing
> the normal course of environmental change in a way which
> could have been harmful, BUT that change, as it turns out
> is not harmful at all, and in fact the short-term benefit
> is poised to have the (unforeseen by the polluters) effect
> of forestalling another "little ice age" ....
>
> Interesting moral dilemma, if nothing else ... wrong for
> the right reason, or right for the wrong reason?
>
> Jones
>
> Michael Foster <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Could a significant global cooling effect be taking
> place.? I notice there is a deafening silence from Pope
> Algore and his Church of Global Warming on this subject.
> It would be very inconvenient for the selling of carbon
> indulgences, oops... that's offsets. Nothing is made
> of the fact that 2007 saw the largest one year drop in
> average global temperature in recorded history. Didn't
> hear about that did you? Almost everyone who lives on the
> real earth, rather that the computer climate model earth,
> has noticed that it's been a lot cooler lately. Where
> I
> live in southern California, winter before last winter
> was the coldest since 1948, but of course nothing was
> made of that in the news. I lost 500 feet of ficus hedge
> because it froze to death. There was a massive die-out of
> native plant species in the canyons near my home as well,
> all frozen.
>
> The fast dancing and circumlocutory nonsense spewing
> forth from the Global Warming Priesthood grasping for
> some explanation are becoming both shrill and comical.
> The real reason for climate changes, solar activity,
> is showing us something quite the opposite of Algore's
> dreamworld. You know, that's the one where all of us
> ride
> bicycles and starve to death, while Algore flies about in
> his Gulfstream and has a special lane on the road for his
> fleet of SUVs while he grows ever fatter. Anyone else
> notice he's begun to resemble a fat Bela Lugosi?
>
> There has been a total lack of sunspots for a month.
> This is not good news, either for real people or
> Algore. This normally indicates a significant colder period
> on the earth, or even an ice age. We need to get really
> serious about energy supplies, both conventional and new,
> especially the new ones. We also need to quit whining
> about genetically modified crops. If there is a long
> term colder climate, agricultural output will plummet.
> More energy and higher crop yields in a shorter growing
> season will be essential to prevent the starvation of
> millions or even billions.
>
> Here is a link to the observations about the lack of
> sunspots:''
>
> http://www.dailytech.com/Sun+Makes+History+First+Spotless+Month+in+a+Century/article12823.htm
>
> -------------
>
> Hi All,
>
> Enclosed below are some interesting posts from the Cycles
> Group.
>
> Jack Smith
>
> PS: I am strongly in favor of energy alternatives to rock
> oil regardless of the causes of global warming. This is
> the most pressing national security problem that we face.
> We should not be trapped into sending young Americans to
> die for oil in the Kazakh War of 2020.
>
> -----------------
>
> ``Source: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> Subject: [cyclesi] Digest Number 2556
>
> Date: Thu Jul 3, 2008 4:13 pm ((PDT))
>
> 53.5 and 210 year Solar Cycles Peaked in 1990s
>
> Posted by: "Ray Tomes" [EMAIL PROTECTED] rjtomes
>
> Date: Thu Jul 3, 2008 4:13 pm ((PDT))
>
> I just noticed that the 53.5 year cycle is modulated also,
> being stronger when the 210 year cycle is high and weaker
> when itis low. Such a modulation results when there are
> beats between a 53.5 year cycle and a cycle of about 71
> years. All these components are in Dewey's table of
> common
> cycles ... 53.25, 71, 213 years.
>
> Some articles relating to this longer cycle in climate
> and the Sun:
>
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/centralamericaandthecaribbean/mexico/1330762/Sun%27s-200-year-cycle-may-have-doomed-Mayans.html#article
>
> ----------------
>
> ARTICLE from The London Telegraph, 5-18-01
>
> By David Derbyshire, Science Correspondent
>
> Sun's 200-year cycle may have doomed Mayans
>
> ... [Solar] output had a direct effect on the climate
> of the Yucatan causing the recurrence of drought, which
> influenced the Maya evolution.
>
> He has previously argued that the collapse of the Mayan
> civilisation was influenced by a severe drought that lasted
> more than 150 years. The new findings come from a study
> of cores removed from the bottom of Lake Chichancanab in
> central America.
>
> The team found distinct layers of gypsum in the cores,
> formed when the lakes dried out during droughts. The layers
> appeared every 208 years.The cycle is almost identical to a
> 206-year natural cycle in solar intensity, said Dr Hodell.
>
> His team found that the droughts took place during the
> most intense part of the cycle. The driest years also
> occurred at times when the Mayan culture was going through
> downturns, abandoning cities or slowing down the amount of
> building and carving. He said: "It is ironic that a
> culture
> so obsessed with keeping track of celestial movements may
> have met their demise because of a 206-year cycle."
> ...
>
> ------------
>
> 53.5 and 210 year Solar Cycles Peaked in 1990s
>
> Posted by: "g_etzkorn" [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> g_etzkorn
>
> Date: Thu Jul 3, 2008 5:08 pm ((PDT))
>
> Blog: Science
>
> Australian Researchers Warn of Global Cooling
>
> Michael Asher (Blog) - July 1, 2008 11:09 AM
>
> A 2005 prediction of solar activity. The sunspot
> number should now stand close to 100, instead it is
> zero."Spin-orbit coupling" to blame; effects
> could last
> decades.
>
> A new paper published by the Astronomical Society of
> Australia is warning of upcoming global cooling due to
> lessened solar activity. The study, written by three
> Australian researchers, has identified what is known as a
> "spin-orbit coupling" affecting the rotation rate
> of the
> sun. That rotation, in turn, is linked to the intensity
> of the solar cycle and climate changes here on Earth.
>
> The study's lead author, Ian Wilson, explains further,
> "[The paper] supports the contention that the level of
> activity on the Sun will significantly diminish sometime
> in the next decade and remain low for about 20 - 30
> years."
>
> According to Wilson, the result is a strong, rapid pulse
> of global cooling, "On each occasion that the Sun has
> done
> this in the past the World's mean temperature has
> dropped
> by ~ 1 - 2 C."
>
> A 2 C drop would be twice as large as all the warming the
> earth has experienced since the start of the industrial
> era, and would be significant enough to impact global
> agriculture output.
>
> Earlier this year, astronomers from around the world noted
> solar activity was suspiciously low; some began predicting
> global cooling at that time. Since then, activity has
> remained far below average, with it now being over two
> months since a single sunspot has appeared on the surface
> of the sun.
>
> ------------
>
> 2r. Re: Global Temperature Cycles
>
> Posted by: "Ray Tomes" [EMAIL PROTECTED] rjtomes
>
> Date: Fri Jul 4, 2008 12:31 am ((PDT))
>
> ... The cyclical forecast indicates that global
> temperatures are headed back to the level of the 1950s
> and 1960s within 7 years (that is by 2015) and to remain
> in that vicinity for a further 23 years.
>
> The assumptions used may not be totally valid. However
> even if there are human components to global temperatures,
> the cyclical components, which we know are mostly solar
> driven, are indicating the 1990s as anomolously high.
>
> ------------
>
> 2s. Re: Searching for Global Temperature data from
> Satellites
>
> Posted by: "Ray Tomes" [EMAIL PROTECTED] rjtomes
>
> Date: Fri Jul 4, 2008 3:41 am ((PDT))
>
> I don't think there is any doubt now about correlations
> between sunspots and weather.
>
> The periods 11 years, 54 years and 210 years are found
> in both.
>
> I think that the synodic periods also relate to solar
> activity, but perhaps not as clearly to weather.
>
> With longer series these things can be tested far more
> accurately.
>
> ------------
>
> 1a. Re: Global Temperature Cycles
>
> Posted by: "Ray Tomes" [EMAIL PROTECTED] rjtomes
>
> Date: Fri Jul 4, 2008 8:16 pm ((PDT))
>
> ... The prediction is that over the next 30 years,
> the temperature might fall back to about the level of
> the ~1940 high. Of course if the process were continued
> further in to the future, the human part would eventually
> send us skyward when some of the longer cycles turn
> upwards again. Therefore such an approach does not lead
> to complacency. Rather, it warns that even if nearly all
> the experts are wrong, and temperatures come down over
> the next few decades, the danger is still there waiting
> to leap forth with renewed vigour ...
>
> --------------
>
> http://www.imminst.org/forum/index.php?showtopic=633&st=30&start=30
>
> http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/20...ayadrought.html
>
> The Castillo pyramid, built by the Maya possibly as early
> as A.D. 618, has four stairways totaling 365 steps, which
> may represent the days in a year.
>
> Photograph by Otis Imboden, copyright National Geographic
> Society
>
> Climate Change Killed Off Mayan Civilization; Study says
>
> With their awe-inspiring architecture and sophisticated
> concepts of astronomy and mathematics, the Maya were
> undoubtedly among the great ancient civilizations of
> Mesoamerica. At the peak of their glory, around 800
> A.D., the Maya ranged from Mexico's Yucatán peninsula
> to Honduras.
>
> Then, almost in an instant, a society of some 15 million
> people imploded, leaving deserted cities, trade routes,
> and immense pyramids in ruins. The sudden demise is one
> of the greatest archeological mysteries of our time. What
> caused the collapse of the great Maya civilization?
>
> The answer, say researchers, is climate change. According
> to a new study published in the current issue of Science,
> a long period of dry climate, punctuated by three intense
> droughts, led to the end of the Maya society. "Climate
> change is to blame for one of the most catastrophic
> collapses in human history," said Gerald Haug, a
> professor
> of geology at the University of Potsdam, Germany, and one
> of the study's authors.
>
> Identifying the Culprit
>
> The drought hypothesis is not new. Sediments taken by
> scientists in 2001 from a lake on the Yucatan peninsula
> showed that a series of extended droughts coincided with
> major cultural upheavals among the Maya people.
>
> But the study of that lake also found man-made effects,
> such as deforestation and soil erosion, and therefore
> didn't reflect a "pure climate signal,"
> according to
> Haug. For the new study, the scientists instead analyzed
> sediment core from the Cariaco Basin off northern
> Venezuela, where the record is cleaner.
>
> Identifying annual titanium levels, which reflect
> the amount of rainfall each year, the Swiss and
> U.S. researchers found that the pristine sediment layers
> in the basin formed distinct bands that correspond to dry
> and wet seasons. According to the scientists, there were
> three large droughts occurring between 810 and 910 A.D.,
> each lasting less than a decade.
>
> The timing of the droughts matched periodic downturns in
> the Maya culture, as demonstrated by abandonment of cities
> or diminished stone carving and building activity.
>
> Experts say the Maya were particularly susceptible to long
> droughts because about 95 percent of their population
> centers depended solely on lakes, ponds, and rivers
> containing on average an 18-month supply of water for
> drinking and agriculture.
>
> Reading the Sun
>
> The Maya were skilled astronomers who constantly followed
> the movements of the sun and the moon. They predicted
> eclipses, explained the movements of planets, and devised
> a sophisticated calendar of the solar year.
>
> Scientists have found that the recurrence of the drought
> was remarkably cyclical, occurring every 208 years. That
> interval is almost identical to a known cycle in which
> the sun is at its most intense every 206 years. Nothing
> suggests the Maya knew anything about the sun's change
> in intensity.
>
> The drought theory is still controversial among some
> archeologists who believe a combination of overpopulation,
> an internecine struggle for control among the nobles,
> a weak economic base, and a political system that
> didn't
> foster power-sharing led to the Maya's collapse. One
> hypothesis suggests the Maya people themselves were
> responsible for their downfall as a result of environmental
> degradation, including deforestation.
>
> Defenders of the climate change theory, however, say
> the droughts sparked a chain of events that led to the
> demise of the Maya. "Sunny days, in and of themselves,
> don't kill people," said Richardson B. Gill,
> author of
> The Great Maya Droughts: Water, Life, and Death. "But
> when
> people run out of food and water, they die."
>
> Living on the Edge
>
> In their twilight days, the Maya were a society in deep
> trouble, according to the authors of the new study. Densely
> populated cities strained resources. Agricultural
> production became crucial in order to feed the
> people. "They were living on the absolute edge,"
> said Hoag.
>
> While the Maya had learned to live with shorter droughts,
> the study indicates that a more subtle, long-term drying
> trend was ongoing during the collapse. The three specific
> droughts may have been what pushed the Mayan society over
> the edge.
>
> "Not only did the Maya have to face an intense
> climatic
> catastrophe, but the duration was something that they had
> never experienced before," said Hoag. "If they
> had stayed
> for another two years, they may have survived. But how
> could they know that the drought would end?"
> ''
>
> -----------------
>
> The Central England Temperature series was originally
> constructed by the late Professor Gordon Manley, and is now
> routinely updated by the Hadley Centre. The monthly mean
> surface air temperatures, for a region representative of
> the English Midlands, are expressed in degrees Celsius for
> the period from 1659 to the present. The data are discussed
> in the following two papers: G. Manley, 'Central
> England
> Temperatures: monthly means 1659 to 1973', Quarterly
> Journal of the Royal ...''
>
> -----------------
>
> Jack Smith writes:
>
> I have the Hadley Center data if Vortex is interested.
>
> I'm enclosing below a post that came in today (9-2-08)
> from an enthusiastic member of Cycles.
>
> -----------------
>
> 1.1. On The Special Theory Of Order: Sunspot, Weather and
> Planetary Synod
>
> Posted by: "Bill Arnold" [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> billarnoldfla
>
> Date: Mon Sep 1, 2008
>
> http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/cyclesi/message/14931
>
> Hi, Cycles Scientists,
>
> SHOCKER! GULP! EEK! GIVE US AN ACADEMY AWARD AND A NOBEL
> PRIZE FOR EVIDENCE OF CYCLIC EFFECTS and trash the global
> warming alarmist theory, forever: 2008 is now here, and
> we can report 2007 is behind us:
>
> Those cycle scientists who follow *CYCLES* of all kinds
> will take note that in AUGUST 08, there were EARTHSPOTS
> which formed in the TROPICS, causing massive thunderstorms
> systems including a damaging hurricane which went into New
> Orleans and another two off the east coast of Florida,
> and RAINY WEATHER continued with a vengeance and across
> America storms pushed into the Northeast.
>
> The RAINY WEATHER has returned, with a vengeance. The
> month OF AUGUST shows the drying out of the WORST
> floods along the Mississippi AND METEOROLOGISTS NOTE
> THE RETURN OF THE COLD LA NINA! Yikes! The poor wrong
> global warming alarmists will have to take shelter from
> the storms underground with the groundhog! All THREE
> FAY, Gustav and Hanna have SHOWN DIRECTIONLESS movement
> typical throughout Hurricane history of storms spawned
> during the SUNSPOT NODAL PERIOD.
>
> THINGS ARE DIFFERENT NOW:
>
> As the sun is NOW in its SUNSPOT NODAL CYCLE PHASE it
> means that the NUMBER of SUNSPOTS counted on the sun are
> at MINIMUM. During this time, the SUNSPOTS have basically
> disappeared from the surface of the sun IN/AND AT its
> EQUATOR. By the same token, INDUCTION in the EARTHSPOTS
> are equally LOW and EQUATORIAL. Let us also POINT out that
> INTENSITY factors are noted. When the sun begins to create
> NEW and REVERSED POLARITY SUNSPOTS in its next CYCLE,
> they will appear halfway toward EACH pole, and as noted,
> POLARITY will be REVERSED. The CAUSAL EFFECT on EARTHSPOTS
> has been pointed out in my *Cycles* papers decades ago:
> and REAFFIRMED.
