I just found this post in the wrong mail folder and realized it went
private to Rick instead of to vortex as intended.
On Sep 9, 2008, at 10:50 AM, Rick Monteverde wrote:
Jed -
Chaos and complexity are two separate and unrelated characteristics.
Well, they're separate anyway. A chaotic system could be very
simple and
still have very complex outputs. Or it might have simple and much more
predictable outputs. Depends on the structure, but not necessarily the
complexity, of the system. As you said, they're different. A
chaotic system
could also be very complex and have relatively simple and predictable
outputs. The claim that the global climate has those
characteristics is
false to a high degree of certainty given historical records.
- Rick
This is all related more to the *perception* of global warming and
the accuracy of shorter term specific models.
A pot of water on a burner takes in heat from the burner and gives
heat to the environment by various means, including conduction,
convection, and radiation. The water in the pot exhibits chaotic
behavior, especially in its convection patterns, which are described
by differential equations, and have characteristics similar to the
atmosphere. For example, it is quickly impossible to predict the
location of a single neutral buoyancy pea in the water. The fact the
convection is difficult to model and predict, and a crucial element
to understanding precisely how the heat transfer of the pot is
working, is a red herring argument with respect to whether it is
possible to predict approximately the longer term behavior of the
average temperature of the pot and when it will boil dry.
Best regards,
Horace Heffner
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
