Robin van Spaandonk wrote:
As soon as you include the biosphere in the calculations, then all the individual interactions that occur within the biosphere are also included, by default (and there are trillions of them). And you can't leave the biosphere out, because the annual swings in CO2 concentration due to seasonal changes are still about 2-4 times larger than the annual CO2 increase due to fossil fuel consumption.
Okay, but my point is that it does not matter where the CO2 comes from; CO2 is CO2. It has the same effect on the atmosphere regardless of origin; it mixes evenly throughout the atmosphere; and you can measure the total amount. The interactions of the various chemicals in the atmosphere are themselves simpler and smaller in number than the interactions within living systems (such as protein folding).
My other point is that the physics of the atmosphere must be well understood because weather prediction is remarkably good these days.
The point is well taken that bacteria or some other species may suddenly release an unpredictably large amount of CO2 or some other chemical that affects the atmosphere. That is unpredictable, and dangerous. However, once that chemical enters the atmosphere the effects it will probably have are not as complex or unpredictable as the circumstances that caused the bacteria to release it in the first place. An effect originating in complex phenomena may, in turn, cause a simple, predictable secondary effect.
- Jed
