Ed Storms wrote to me:
Your description of the Wright experience is fascinating, Jed. I did
not realize that CF and flying had so much in common.
Yes indeed. And we could learn a lot from history, if only we would.
Learn from it or you are doomed to repeat it, as Santayana said.
Apparently, very little changes when it comes to the influence of fools.
Yes, but the good news is that because very little changes, the
effective methods of overcoming the influence of fools remain pretty
much the same as they were back in 1903. The principal method is to
demonstrate the effect if possible, and if that is not possible,
publish photographs and other graphic proof.
A concrete illustration of this can be seen in the history of the
Wright's negotiation with the British war office and the US Army. The
British War Office was instantly convinced that the airplane was real
within a few months of the 1903 flight. The U.S. Army was not
convinced until late 1907. The question is: Why? and What does that
tell us about what steps cold fusion researchers should take to
convince people today? What can we learn from history?
This subject is covered in detail in many books but especially A.
Gollin, "No Longer an Island" (Stanford, 1984).
Aeronautics, first balloons and later blimps, had played an
increasingly important role in war since the U.S. Civil War. Count
Zeppelin as a young man, and other European officers, came to the
U.S. and witnessed Union Army balloon observers in action. This was
very effective and impressive. Every European army was knowledgeable
about this subject, and most were following both Zeppelin's work, and
the Wrights and others working on heavier-than-air aircraft.
The U.S. Army did nothing because as I said previously, because of
the Langley fiasco:
"For some time they [the Army] had been victims of savage criticism
and denunciation, in the national Press and in the Congress itself,
because they had furnished Professor Langley with so much money for
his ill-fated experiments. This campaign of ridicule and censure was
so bitter that, in the opinion of Langley's friends, it broke his
spirit and eventually caused his death a few years later.
For their part, the military bureaucrats in the [U.S.] War Department
condemned once for squandering public funds in support of the
ridiculous and impractical dreams of a professor, had now learnt the
value of prudence in such matters. They did nothing. Langley's
failures had demonstrated what every practical matter already knew.
They proved that heavier than air flight was impossible . . ."
The British Army, on the other hand, was more open minded. A British
aviation aficionado in contact with the War Office, Patrick
Alexander, was in touch with the Wrights. The Wrights invited him to
the December 1903 test fight, with a telegraph advising him to "BRING
ABUNDANT BEDDING" but he could not make it.
In 1904, soon after the first flight, Col. Capper, Chief of the
Aeronautic Department, British War Office, contacted the Wrights and
asked to visit them. He was coming to the U.S. to see the aeronautics
exposition in St. Louis, which did not impress him. They welcomed
him, the way they welcomed many other technically knowledgeable
visitors. When such people visited the Wrights in Dayton, they were
shown dozens of photos and so on, and this invariably, instantly
convinced them. In his official report Capper wrote:
". . . In December last they succeeded in keeping the machine in the
air for 59 seconds, and since then they have made further experiments
which have induced them both a very strong confidence that they will
shortly without difficulty be able to compass journeys of considerable length.
Both these gentlemen impressed me most favorably; they have worked up
step by step, they are in themselves well-educated man, and capable
mechanics, and I do not think are more likely unlikely to claim more
than they can perform . . .
. . . They were most courteous, showing me their motor of which they
do not desire any particulars be at present made public, and also
gave me, in confidence, certain particulars of their machine and of
the work they have actually done, illustrated by photographs taken of
the machine in different conditions of flight, which have satisfied
me that they have at least made far greater strides in the evolution
of the flying machine than any of their predecessors . . ."
Here is an example of the Wrights technical presentations and photos
from 1901. This was given at the Western Soc. of Engineers, a major
engineering societies, and published in the journal. There was
another presentation like this in 1903:
<http://invention.psychology.msstate.edu/i/Wrights/library/Aeronautical.html>http://invention.psychology.msstate.edu/i/Wrights/library/Aeronautical.html
This is the sort of thing Capper saw.
The Wrights gave a few presentations and published data and few
photos, but they could have done much more. Their friends were
pleading with them and cajoling them to do more, but they refused,
for reasons that even then seemed crazy.
They politely told Capper that they preferred to deal with the U.S.
Army before the British Army and they said the same thing to a French
army representative who showed up soon after that. Then they began
negotiating with the U.S. Army. This effort dragged on from 1904 to
late 1907. It took them all this time to convince the Army that the
airplane was real. This is not because the Army officers were fools.
It was because the Wright refused to give them detailed information!
As Crouch put it: "a personal visit to Washington with a handful of
the astonishing photos of the long flights of 1904-05, accompanied by
affidavits from the Huffman Prairie witnesses, would surely have
convinced the [Army] board."
The affidavits were from 50 people including a bank owner and many
other leading citizens of Dayton. The Wrights had plenty of highly
credible bona fides, and a mountain of paper evidence such as photos
and data, the West. Soc. proceedngs and so on -- material that bowled
over experts such as Capper -- but they did not use that evidence.
They demanded that the Army Board take their word for their
accomplishments. Unfortunately, the Army did not send an expert to
Dayton to look at the evidence firsthand. As far as I know they did
not even mention these things in their correspondence with the Army!!
Finally, the message did get through, and flight tests were arranged
for 1908, which began a week after the flight in France. The rest is history.
Think what happens when you show top notch cold fusion data and
experimental apparatus to an expert such as Rob Duncan. He is bowled
over, just the way Capper was.
This is why I have been pleading with cold fusion researchers to
publish more, show more, demonstrate more, to other experts. Despite
widespread public opposition to cold fusion there are thousands of
knowledgeable experts favorably inclined toward it, the way Capper
was supportive of airplanes in 1904.
That's the whole point to LENR-CANR.org. It gives researchers a
chance to tell the world what they have. Show it, demonstrate it,
publish it. Some researchers have contributed but unfortunately many
have not, and even those who contribute have not bothered to give me
a lot of convincing data, photos and other evidence that they have in
their possession.
- Jed
