At 09:53 PM 5/25/2010, OrionWorks - Steven Vincent Johnson wrote:
I spent a couple of days reviewing the "Guide to the Cosmos" interview with Steve Krivit. I was interested in comparing what was actually said versus what certain individuals within the Vort Collective seem to be implying Krivit has said. For example, I noticed the following opinions recently levied against Krivit:

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"Krivit is attacking a straw man and claiming that people are lying."

And:

"Steve calling people who are thinking out of the box liars will not get you in."
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The title of the radio program is "Guide to the Cosmos – Did Scientist on '60 Minutes' Lie about Cold Fusion?" It's a deliberately incendiary title: Hype. Anyone invited to speak on a radio show sporting such an incendiary title where they are asked to explain their admittedly controversial position is likely to end up getting branded any which way they turn – unless they are very, VERY skillful in regards to the choice of words they use.

How about answering, "No, they aren't lying," or if you think they are lying through their teeth but you don't have proof, "There is no evidence that they are lying," or, if you are really sure but you can't prove it, simply, "I can't prove that they are lying." Unfortunately, as I recall, he answered "Yes" to the question.

Now, what question was it, exactly? When I've thought there might be issues about the exact text of some speech, I've transcribed it. Lot of work, I don't have time now, and I can't just skim over a radio interview so easily. Let's put it this way: the headline said lying and the interview certainly didn't contradict it. I've been suggesting for some time that those who fund Krivit check it out for themselves. If he's doing courageous investigative reporting, great, keep it up. But if he's a loose cannon, tearing up the decks, restrain him.

On the other hand, there is some suspicion that there is money behind Larsen, and that this might be warping things. In the past, Krivit turned down the chance to become a "press agent," for Energetics Technologies; at least that's his account. Has he done this now for W-L theory?

If W-L theory is as important as Krivit claims, certainly there is something strange: Krivit is asking none of the hard questions about W-L theory. It has some very obvious problems, and I don't see answers coming out of Larsen, and Krivit behaves as if the objections don't exist. If this is "courageous investigative reporting," it is strangely one-sided.

I have no investment in W-L being wrong. As a hopeful hook to hang the cold fusion hat on, though, it's worrisome. "No dangerous radiation." Loose neutrons, one might think, would be quite dangerous, that's what neutron activation analysis is about. Somehow these neutrons manage to run, not just one reaction, but a whole soup of them, and sequentially, which requires at some stages a high reaction rate, yet none of the major reactions produce radionucleides? Why not?

Any new theory, as unexpected and unexplored as this, may have unexplained aspects. But it's deceptive to sweep them under the carpet, to pretend that they don't exist. As to lying, how about refusing to answer a direct question about the evidence for 100% absorption of gamma radiation by these "heavy electrons"? Was it Garwin who asked about the experimental evidence? Larsen answered in a way that implied he had experimental evidence but could not disclose it. Proprietary. This was years ago. Radiation screening like that would be huge, with military applications. So, perhaps the military has clamped down on this. Down this road, however, anything could be justified. Space aliens at Roswell, and the evidence is being suppressed, and many other stories.

I see no sign that general cold fusion research is being actively suppressed, beyond the old particle physics establishment politics.

I'm not interested in defending Mr. Krivit's journalistic style, particularly the controversy that has surrounded NET#34. That has already been extensively critiqued by many within this discussion group. What I'm interested in focusing on is the fact that I'm beginning to read conclusions expressed in Vortex that from my perspective seem to be skewing what was actually said in the recent "Guide to the Cosmos" interview. It would seem that certain vort posters are beginning to imply that Mr. Krivit has actually accused certain CF scientists of lying. The "L" word is now being openly bandied about like loose change strewn on top of a dresser. And while the "L" word was not directly linked to any specific CF researcher... if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck... Guilt by association.

There is a general "accusation," more like mud tossed at a crowd, and there are specific examples, the big one is McKubre. There is a technique for accusing people of lying without accusing them of lying. It is to present a series of apparent contradictions, with "questions" that imply some cover-up or deceptive or at least scientifically careless presentation of evidence to produce a deceptive impression. So we have the change in the heat/helium ratio from EPRI experiment M4. That Krivit noticed the shift, when the EPRI publications were recently released, from the publication of this data at ICCF, was a good catch, i.e., asking questions about it was quite appropriate. But it went much further than that. Krivit asked EPRI about errata, had a correction been issued? And when he got an answer that there wasn't any, he presented this as if McKubre were lying about it, or failing to discharge a scientific responsibility, at the least.

Now, from McKubre's account, he fulfilled his obligation, though if he'd had some kind of super-lawyer looking over his shoulder, the lawyer might have said, "Make sure you put that in writing." But the EPRI project was over, done, paid for, complete, apparently. This was a private report, not widely published, if I'm correct. It was just a pile of data and analysis. McKubre said that he told "EPRI" of the correction. It came out in private discussions that he told a specific EPRI manager, and privately. I'm not going to go into trying to prove anything here, and it may not be possible; the point is that the normal and reasonable common-law assumption, that testimony is true unless controverted, was dropped. Instead of asking McKubre *how* he informed EPRI, Krivit asked an official who would not necessarily have had any knowledge, got an answer that meant "Not as far as I know," and ran with it.

Krivit's blog posts are now missing from the NET site. Is that deliberate? The story is that he's changed software. It's trivial to keep old material up when you do this. It was irritating when Krivit "revamped" his web site and the old links usually came up with "not here" messages. But the absolute disappearance of material is worse. It's trivial, if one is revamping a web site, to keep the old one up, perhaps at a new address, and it's actually easier than what Krivit did before and appears to be doing now. It's easy to set up redirects from old pages to new ones, as well.

But maybe it's better that he's doing this. I fear, though, that Krivit has so badly damaged his relationships with the major researchers in the field that he'll be unable to function except as some kind of outside gadfly and critic. From conversations with people in the field, I have the impression that damage had accumulated and rapport had been breaking down for years. A good investigative reporter will not hold back on a major story just because it might offend a source, but will make damn sure the story isn't just some passing impression or appearance before publishing it, that it is truly important, not just a suspicion. If some suspicion appears, the reporter will approach the subject, encouraging the subject to help get the truth out, and would never act to create the impression that the reporter is a hostile agent or actor. People may dislike what a good investigative reporter presents, but will recognize that the questions are real. If they can remain engaged, then the work of the reporter will help to establish the truth.

From what I've seen, Krivit's pursuit of The Story led him to publish prematurely, many times, leading to raw conflict being presented without depth and neutral analysis. Krivit became an actor instead of a reporter, he became personally involved, as with the story about the aborted interview with Fleischmann last year, and the Dardik involvement. That was Krivit's personal frustration becoming the story, with speculations revealing his personal suspicions about Dardik, as if it was news. It was this sequence, in the missing blog posts, that alerted me to the problem, and Krivit became quite angry when confronted about it (here). Before that, I had nothing but a good relationship with Krivit, and he'd been helpful.

Let me be clear about this. I never heard Krivit state that that CF scientists and researchers "lied" about their data in this interview.

You should consider his answers to questions. I think you are literally correct, Steven, but he answered "Yes" to a leading question on this. My impression was that they had a conversation first, so the host was primed to ask that question, and Krivit certainly did not dispel the impression. Krivit is welcome to dispel it any time. Has he? If that interview was deceptively presented, surely Krivit could blog about it.

It's not linked from the main NET page, AFAIK, but it's here: http://blog.newenergytimes.com/


<http://blog.newenergytimes.com/2010/05/11/new-blog-platform/>New Blog Platform



Posted on <http://blog.newenergytimes.com/2010/05/11/new-blog-platform/>May 11, 2010 by <http://blog.newenergytimes.com/author/sbkrivit/>Steven B. Krivit

Hi folks! After quite a few years running on an outdated blog platform we’ve finally upgraded our blog system. If you really want to see something from our blog archives from before the upgrade, shoot us an e-mail. Thanks for reading.

The old files have been replaced with a redirect to the "new blog platform." But that was actually, my guess, more work than just installing the new and linking it from the main page, and placing a link to the old blog. He's set up a subdomain, which is an easy way to use new software. But why was the old, which doesn't occupy that subdomain, removed? What this means is that all requests to see that information have to go through Krivit. How practical is that?

<Personal analysis of what got Krivit into trouble>

[Feel free to skip the "personal analysis" portion if you're not interested in my own personal blow-by-blow analysis of a specific portion of the Cosmos interview.]

I can understand how such a black & white accusation could be conjured up, particularly since in my view Krivit's handling of himself (the choice of words he used) showed in my view some inexperience in the "PR" management of his personal speculations. I think that inexperience got him into trouble and allowed his critics to exploit the situation.

It created the criticism, Steven. You are presenting a picture as if the critics were critics and just looking for a way to criticize him. Why? The existence of NET was good news. If it were being run well. What I've been hearing for some time, though, is that Krivit was impervious to constructive criticism, he was Krivit, he was going to do his thing, and that was that.

I heard the radio host attempt to maneuver Krivit into confirming conjecture that certain scientists had lied. The radio host used the phrase "...deliberate misrepresentation by these scientists" which Krivit initially confirmed. You can hear Steve say "Yeah... Ummm..." Anyone who has a modicum of intelligence in regards to the manner in which those two monosyllabic words had been uttered would quickly suspect that this reporter was not entirely comfortable with his response, that probably in Krivit's mind he might be trying to work out a clarification in regards to what he is beginning to realize he has just found himself agreeing to.

How to confirm that there was deliberate misrepresentation without the blatantly obvious "lying." But that impression had been created by Krivit for quite some time. The knee-jerk affirmative (I remembered it as "Yes," in fact, but maybe it was "yeah," or maybe I was remembering a different interchange).

Meanwhile, the interviewer presses on and uses the term "scientific fraud". At this point Steve counters by stating "No, I'm not going to say 'scientific fraud' ... although people are free to make their own assessment of that."

That's tell-tale. He believes there was fraud, but he can't prove it, so he says "I'm not going to say," but allows the accusation by the host, the host's impression of their off-the-record conversation, to stand.

I conclude from this, a rebuttable conclusion, that Krivit believes there has been deliberate deception. It's been obvious for some time by the way he has conducted his open conversations, as with De Ninno in NET 34.

Unfortunately, it's the latter portion of Krivit's reply ("...free to make their own assessment...") that in my view gets him into even more trouble. It can leave many a listener with the impression that "scientific fraud", of "lying", is still a legitimate conclusion that Krivit might be indirectly endorsing. (IOW: the sins of omission.)

Duh! I don't see how Krivit can function as an investigative reporter in this field any more. Had he addressed the issues when they started to come up, he could have recovered. He allowed himself to become a biased player in the game.

It would not surprise me if Krivit as he went about performing his investigations in preparation for NET#34 may have found himself on more than one occasion privately entertaining speculation as to whether certain CF scientists might have lied about the content of their data. It would be a natural form of creative speculation that any of us could easily find ourselves privately entertaining while in the midst of trying to unravel a complicated confusing puzzle of scientific data. A crucial point listeners who might chose to assume Krivit has actually claimed CF researches "lied" is the fact that Krivit has already stated for the record: "...I'm not going to say 'scientific fraud'". That means Krivit never said that anyone had "lied" about their data.

It doesn't mean that, Steven. Read it literally. "I'm not going to say" is literally about his response to the question. It's not about other times, it's not about the past or the future, though, again, literally, it's a prediction about the future, but if we apply it to the indefinite future, rather than just the immediate, it would be preposterous. Surely if there were proof of fraud, he'd report it, don't you think? What he'd already done is to present possible elements of proof, together with charges of serious misbehavior, laden with accusation, but presented as "unexplained facts," even though the explanations had been provided and Krivit was unable to understand. The inability to understand, I infer, was due to interference from held assumptions. I wrote extensively about this in my review of the De Ninno material.

As previously stated, it seems to me that Krivit's handling of his words (particularly what I would describe as a mismanagement of some his private speculations) was awkward, and that transparency got him into trouble. Hopefully, in the future as Krivit continues to pursue his career as an investigative reporter he will become better experienced in the management of private speculations, particularly where he himself becomes the star witness, where the interviewer is attempting to steer the direction of the conversation to a desired outcome.

An ability to separate oneself from private speculations and to function as a neutral investigator and witness is essential to investigative reporting. The existence of a "desired outcome" is fatal to neutrality, when "desired outcome" becomes a fixed object rather than bringing out the truth. Yes, the investigative reporter will form hypotheses along the way, and is like a scientist in that. The questions asked will attempt to clarify or to disconfirm the hypotheses. Krivit began to assume that he understood the field, when his analyses have shown that, too often, he didn't. That would not have been a problem, because if he had continued to process of educating himself, by asking rather than, effectively, accusing, his process of education would have been useful for all of us. But he became obsessed, he lost his balance, and it was painfully obvious in the press conference at ACS San Francisco in March. He'd become a hostile critic, grandstanding, instead of asking questions to clear up what was unclear. There would have been lots of good questions to ask, some of them difficult, some of them merely as clarifications. M4, for example, is a minor result, compared to other work in the field. I'm sure most hearing his questions had no idea what he was getting at.

As McKubre commented, if he'd wanted to "prove 24 MeV," he'd certainly not have made the correction, since it pushed the result away from that. So why the fuss over this particular result and the correction. I see only one reason. To attempt to prove that McKubre was sloppy at best, and deceptive at worst. Krivit had what he thought was a smoking gun.

 </Personal analysis of what got Krivit into trouble>

It seemed to me that Krivit spent a good portion of the interview clarifying what he personally perceived to have been a "...misrepresentation of [the] data", a conclusion based on his own research of the scientific findings. What I took away from that interview is that Krivit doesn't seem to link his perception of a "...misrepresentation of data" as deliberate: "intent to deceive." ... of "lying." But some within the Vort Collective seem to have come dangerously close to interpreting Krivit's statements as having been an all-out accusation: That certain CF researchers lied.

Funny that you seem to be defending Krivit as merely naive about how he presents himself. Krivit plainly believes that CF researchers lied, but doesn't want to admit it because he can't prove it. If he were to recover from the mess he's gotten into, he'd have to (1) admit his belief, and (2) examine the basis for the belief, and (3) admit that he'd been caught in a trap of his own making. That's pretty difficult, few people can do this. But that's the situation, and he created it.

It's beginning to look to me as if the rumor mill has started to grind away. Will Krivit soon be accused of deliberately accusing CF scientists of lying?

He allowed that to appear. He hasn't denied the way in which the interview was framed. Will he? Let's watch. But, Steven, you are presenting the appearance, now, of some kind of conspiracy against Krivit. Most of the researchers in the field that I've talked with seem to have decided to just let Krivit go his own way. There is no rumor mill, no organized attempt to discredit Krivit. I'm a commentator, a kind of investigative reporter myself, but the field I'm investigating is cold fusion and the research community, and I'm not neutral. I will defend this community against attack. I will not defend actual misbehavior, because I believe that any deliberate deception on the part of researchers does great harm to the whole community. But Krivit is not part of the research community, and he has alienated it, without any apparent necessity. Questioning the heat/helium ratio is good. But Krivit's obsession with W-L theory -- which he clearly does not understand -- caused him to ask the wrong questions and to make assumptions about the significance of 24 MeV that aren't true.

This whole "not fusion" emphasis is basically nuts. Krivit does not deny that helium is being produced. Larsen does not deny that there are nuclear reactions involving deuterium as a fuel. Where do these ULM neutrons come from, according to the theory? They come from deuterium, through d + e -> 2 n. If, then, these neutrons are combined with "stuff" to make helium (and other nucleides), the reaction has accomplished fusion. That is, deuterium in with helium out. Krivit presents the operating hypothesis of the field as being "d+d fusion," but that is merely one of the possible reactions that accomplish fusion. From what I'm finding, most researchers at present seem to favor an operating hypothesis of cluster fusion, which isn't d+d fusion either. Takahashi theory seems to be, basically, 2 D2 (two deuterium molecules, including electrons) -> collapse and fusion -> Be-8 plus energy -> 2 He-4 plus energy. Other cluster theories involve larger clusters.

If, however, the primary fuel is deuterium, and the primary ash is helium, the heat/helium ratio will *primarily* be 24 MeV. That is not proof of "d+d fusion," but supports "cold fusion." Cold fusion is not a synonym for "d+d fusion," and, politically, it's important to erase the assumption that "cold fusion" is impossible, merely pointing out that there are many ways to skin a category, fusion is a broad term, not a narrow one. Assuming that the reaction, if it was real, must be "d+d fusion," was certainly premature in 1989, and then the obvious problems with this hypothesis allowed critics to reject cold fusion as impossible. But we already knew that cold fusion was possible; indeed, *very cold fusion*, i.e., muon-catalyzed fusion. Were other forms of catalysis possible? Electron catalysis *seemed* impossible, but that was based on a very shallow understanding of the possibilities. What we now have, with Takahashi's TSC theory, is not merely an explanation, but a *prediction* of fusion under conditions that might *possibly* exist in the lattice, from quantum field theory. It is no longer appropriate at all, while Takahashi's math remains unchallenged, to consider cold fusion as impossible. That's not the end of this story, because the required physical conditions are not well enough known, it is not known if the tetrahedral symmetric configuration for two deuterium molecules to form is actually possible. But the energy that would be required, the confinement that would be required, is no longer far from what could exist. It's possible, so TSC theory is certainly on the table.

It requires much less hand-waving than W-L theory. W-L theory seems to be impressing some because, indeed, *maybe* ULM neutrons could form, and they would certainly cause LENR. I'm not going to rule it out, because as long as we don't know what's happening with real and complete theoretical clarity, *nothing* can be completely ruled out, because "obvious objections" might turn out to have other-than-obvious explanations.

But what is W-L theory? You can look in vain at the NET "Widom Larsen theory portal." Krivit presents the claims, but none of the criticism. On the other side, which he presents inaccurately as "d-d fusion," Krivit is now presenting the criticism, but misrepresenting the claims. As far as I can tell, he's ignoring cluster fusion theory, which is being published.

This is what researchers really think: cold fusion is deuterium fusion, but probably not "d-d fusion."

Rumors can be insidious little disinformation pathogens. Is the Vort Collective in danger of catching the fever? Will this nasty little virus replicate and spread its message to other hosts? I'm sure this little gem would love to do just that - if it hasn't already.

I'm the "virus." But I'm not spreading "disinformation," I'm collecting data and analyzing it. Turn it around, Steven. Is Krivit calling researchers "liars"? I'm saying that his campaign is having that effect, and that it's apparent that Krivit believes it. Now, can he fix this if it's not true? He certainly can, if he wants to. He can make public statement, any time, that denies the impression created by the radio interview. I suggest, however, that he be completely honest and not weasel his way out of an accusation on technicalities. "I didn't say that," when his comments were informed -- or deluded -- by the belief of lying, would be mere technicality, a technicality which you are encouraging here as if it were substantial, Steven.

What I took away from this interview concerning Krivit's reporting style is the fact that Vort participants (myself included) are not immune to becoming a tad cloistered, even incestuous as we continue to bask the admiration and eloquence of each other's expressed opinions.

Really? Incestuous? Wouldn't that be more fun?

Our posts occasionally include extensive analysis of the behavior and motivations of others.

Mine do, when that behavior impacts the field or is harming the person in question. Both are true with Krivit. *In my opinion.* I'm not affiliated with any institution and nobody else is responsible for what I write. I'm independent, and intend to remain that way, unless the situation changes, in which case I'd disclose it before proceeding. I have a reputation for rigorous honesty and a willingness to admit error, that's what I'd want to defend. Certainly not "being right." If I'm wrong, challenge it, and show me and others what's right.

Our posts can also turn into circuitous feedback loops stated and re-stated over and over – occasionally in tedious bulk format.

I write at length, these are conversations, for me, and a transcript of a phone discussion would be quite long. They are not formal, edited publications and they are not polemic, i.e., designed to penetrate and convince. I'm not a professional, being paid either to do investigative reporting and editing to boil it down, or to promote some point of view. Make your own conclusions, or do as I do, suspend judgement, as long as possible. I'm assertive, I will state the way things appear to me, and I often stick my foot in my mouth. From having done this for years, though, I do tend to quickly recognize the taste of my feet.

(I freely admit that I'm probably just as guilty of having committed many of these sins, particularly since this post is five pages in length, single spaced.) It wouldn't hurt too keep in mind the fact that the world is a big place where plenty of alternate perceptions are floating about, different perceptions that don't necessarily coincide with what some within the Vort Collective appear to be advertising as the truth of the matter.

I don't advertise "truth," because I don't own it and possess it in any exclusive way. I'm not the ultimate judge of truth. You are, but you are, dear readers, then, responsible to the judge of judges. Be careful.

I've also noticed that an opinion was recently expressed, that Mr. Krivit has "lost it", presumably in reference to Krivit's discriminatory performance as an investigative reporter.

Yup. C'est moi.

The accusation

... or observation ...

reminds me of a similar situation I experienced [... basically a version of "time will tell who has fell and who is left behind." Dylan favored linguistic impact over grammar.]

Investigative reporters are often perceived as either heroes or villains depending on what side of the fence one is working on.

True investigative reporters are careful about fences, and straddle them. It's a problem with some investigative reporting, and it's less effective when the problem arises, because the bias is visible and the results therefore less trustworthy. Even if what is reported is true, it can, then, be cherry-picked to create a desired impression. This kind of "investigative reporter" is really a political activist pursuing an agenda that is other than the exposition of truth and balanced presentation of evidence. It's okay to be a political activist, but not okay to, then, masquerade as a neutral investigator, just interested in finding and reporting the truth.

It's the cross those who engage in this scrappy profession must carry. As such, it is my opinion that accusations, such as Krivit has "...lost it", or that he's using the "L" word ("make him stop!!!!") strike me as not terribly insightful.

Cool. Time will tell, Steven.

Drama of this nature plays out all the time in the public arena. It seems to me that many have gotten themselves all whipped up over Krivit's recent choice of words.

I'm not noticing a great deal of discussion of this, here, so isn't "many have gotten themselves all whipped up" a bit ... exaggerated? Krivit is an important player in the *politics* of cold fusion, he's quite visible. My Wikipedia article on NET got deleted, but only because I'm topic banned and couldn't defend it and nobody else took up the cause. Definitely, there should be an article on Krivit *or* NET. Krivit is probably more notable. If anyone wants to work on that, email me, for unless you are very familiar with Wikipedia process and politics, you are more likely to screw it up than to be successful. I'm completely free to advise, but off Wikipedia.

Vorticians may also be interested in the possibilities at http://en.wikiversity.org/wiki/Cold_fusion. That is, I hope, being configured as a seminar on Cold fusion. I will shepherd it to keep it within the bounds of what is legitimate at Wikiversity, but "fringe" topics are fine to explore at Wikiversity. My position is that cold fusion is no longer fringe, that the "fringe" opinion is simply a socio-political position, not reflective of actual scientific consensus, as shown by peer-reviewed publications and even the 2004 DoE review (many in this field missed that this review, was, overall, reflective of a massive shift since 1989. Cold fusion research was clearly treated as respectable, by most reviewers.)

I'm also getting the impression that some here might even begin to feel confident enough to start predicting Krivit's untimely professional demise, or that he will be ostracized.

I'm not predicting it, it's already happened to a degree. Just look at that ACS press conference, March 2010, and the reaction of Jan Marwan to Krivit. These were collaborators, and if looks could kill, Krivit would have fallen over, dead.

Krivit's still flopping about, there are publications in the pipeline, but if I were a researcher at this point, I'd not be eager to talk to Krivit. What's happening with Energetics Technologies? Why was Krivit reduced to reporting rumors?

Is it impossible to find out? Why? There are a lot of people involved. There are things that would be public record, or that would be available to anyone with, say, contacts in Israel. And Missouri.

An investigative reporter needs a network of friendly contacts. Does he still have it? This field is in the process of breaking out, but where is the news? Not on NET, I can tell you. I expect to see massive increases in funding over the next several years. I'd think that there would be more news now than in the past, much more. What's the status of the various research projects?

I don't think so, but that's just my opinion. In the meantime, I certainly understand the anger, the outrage. I will not make light of those emotions. Insofar as the craft of investigative reporting goes: Hopefully, as we get older and more experienced we acquire more insightful (if not more tactful) ways of delivering the message. Like any profession, it's a learning process, one that possesses its share of pitfalls.

Sure. So, to survive, one must be able to recover from mistakes. How? Denying that there are any mistakes is not part of the recovery process. Krivit has acknowledged an error, in NET 34. Unfortunately, the acknowledgement was more confused than the original error. Krivit "fell for" cold fusion without actually understanding it, he admits that. But he's now fallen for a false hope, almost certainly, and he's making the same error: believing something that he doesn't understand.

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