James Bowery <jabow...@gmail.com> wrote:
([1E9 * ounce_troy] * [{12.02 * gramm} / {(centi*meter)^3}]^-1) * ([100 *
> {kilo watt}] / [{centi*meter}^3]) ? watt
>
> = 2.5876415E14 W
>
> over 200 terawatts.
>
Unfortunately, I think Preparata meant "100" not 100,000. The comma is a
decimal point. I do not understand why he added 3 digits of precision to a
rough approximation. Anyway, that comes to 0.2 TW, which is about 1/100 of
world energy production. Fleischmann once estimated that Pd can supply
about 1/3 of total energy. I confirmed it is in that ballpark, ~30% to ~50%.
Here is my estimation.
I assume that power density and temperature with palladium can be increased
to the limits of the material. That is to say up to the highest
temperatures in which thin-film palladium can survive. Or nanoparticles in
aerogel, or what-have-you. The limiting factor is how thinly you can spread
the palladium and have it remain on the substrate and in contact with the
medium, which will probably be D2 gas.
About half of palladium nowadays is used in catalytic converters. Hot gas
from internal combustion engines flows over the palladium surface and is
catalyzed. I assume this technology is pushed to the limit. They use the
smallest amount palladium they can, spreading it as thinly as they can with
maximum exposure to the moving gas. A palladium based cold fusion cell
would have palladium spread roughly as thin as this, producing temperatures
roughly as high as this. If they could make in any thinner, they would.
This technology has been around for a while and it is probably mature.
Nearly all of the energy from an automobile is wasted as hot gas. In other
words, the hot gas that passes over the palladium surface is roughly equal
to the total amount of energy produced by gasoline in the transportation
sector. To put it another way, if the heat was being produced by the
palladium inside the catalytic converter, instead of coming from the engine
to the converter, you would get nearly as much energy as you get from
gasoline now.
To simplify a great deal, assuming that cold fusion can achieve the same
temperatures as palladium experiences in a catalytic converter, half of our
palladium could produce roughly as much energy as the entire automotive
transportation sector does now: 27 out of 99 quads. All of our palladium
could therefore produce roughly 50 out of 99 quads.
Actually the number is higher for various reasons:
* The palladium is not used up as quickly in a cold fusion device as it is
in a catalytic converter.
* The palladium is more easily and completely recovered from a used cold
fusion cell, assuming it is not transmuted.
* Palladium production will be increased as demand increases.
This is a crude estimate but I believe it does show that there is not
enough palladium to produce all the energy we need. If it turns out
palladium is the only suitable metal, we would have large centralized
generators producing most of our energy, supplying it as electricity for
use in electric cars and so on. We would not actually put the palladium in
automobiles, and probably not in houses either.
- Jed
