Jed, I do not pretend to be an expert on global warming. I do have quite a bit of experience in solving difficult problems and in modeling unusual behaviors. You seem to be a guy that likes to think through issues that are of importance as well. Perhaps you might want to consider the complexity of the global warming models for a moment. Do you honestly believe that the software guys have included all of the variables that influence the future climate in their models? If you answer yes, then you are going to be in for a major surprise in the near future.
All you need to do is to realize that there are several different models that are consulted as these scientists predict the future. Why several? If each one is suspect, then one would expect that the average prediction is also suspect. And if you takes a peek at the Earth's past climate, it is apparent that forces are at work that are far more influential and complex than the relatively simple carbon dioxide driver. Now I have read, but not confirmed that the current models do a poor job of predicting backwards. This does not surprise me at all since I can generate a relatively simple multivariable curve fit from existing data that does a marvelous job of matching the source data during the source period. You tend to disregard the 16 year heating pause, dismissing it offhand because it is not possible according to your beliefs. What of the cooling period between 1940 and upwards until just before the recent critical rise that is so discussed? Do you recall talk of a new Ice Age that was thought to be beginning during the 60's? May I ask you one simple question if you are planning to respond to this post. Do you honestly believe that the current climate models accurately take into account all of the important variables and their interactions that predict future climate? You answer to this one question might open your eyes to the possibilities which you have thus far avoided. Dave -----Original Message----- From: Jed Rothwell <[email protected]> To: vortex-l <[email protected]> Sent: Tue, Dec 4, 2012 2:57 pm Subject: Re: [Vo]:How bad is this news? Jed Rothwell David Roberson <[email protected]> wrote: It does not take a bible fanatic to question the global warming train wreck. Some of us have worked with complex systems before and realize just how difficult it is to separate out the various important parameters. Unless you have worked with this particular complex system, day in and day out, for many years, you are not qualified to render a valid professional opinion of it. Not even slightly qualified. I worked with extremely complex computer programs for 20 years. I know a lot about software. In some ways, I know more than programmers trained nowadays, since I had to deal with hardware limitations, assembly language and so on. I also have a degree in language and linguistics, so I know a lot about translation, text processing and so on. I read Chomsky, and I studied with professors who thought Chomsky is a fool. I have translated papers and books. I can read and understand some of the complicated papers published by Google about their machine translation. I can probably understand those papers better than 99% of the reading public. HOWEVER, I would not -- in a million years -- show up at a conference and claim that I know better than the experts at Google. I am a knowledgeable amateur in that field. Since you have worked with complex systems, you are entitled to an opinion. No doubt you are better at evaluating climatology claims than 99% of the reading public. But that still does not mean you are anything more than a gifted amateur. You really have no business claiming you know better the experts, or asserting that the research is a "train wreck." At best, you can say you have some doubts. Why not? After all, many aspects of the research are doubtful. There are many open questions. You are probably well qualified to discuss them. Many aspects of machine translation are doubtful or unresolved. If you want to know how and why they are doubtful you could do worse than to ask me. I probably know better than most science journalists. But that does not begin to make me an expert! - Jed
