Sometimes things go wrong and they are just problems, answers are found,
things improve.
And sometimes it's a dilemma, an answer, ANY answer, is not possible,
and decline/catastrophe/bad stuff is inevitable.
The seemingly inevitable upward sweep of history is a transient blip, a
tiny moment in the sweep of time, brought about by the discovery of the
wonder of nearly free energy. Now the oil is no longer cheap and the
whole structure built on it will subside or even collapse, later or sooner.
Cold Fusion -I think it's real- will slow this down, probably reverse
the decline for awhile, but the mindset that we learned on the way up
(that all we find is ours to exploit, without limit) will drive us back
all the way down. Because a /lot/ of things are running out, not just
oil. This is a dilemma. The only possible answers involve changing
human nature. Don't hold your breath.
Most of the radical new discoveries of the Industrial Revolution were
the results of cheap energy, made possible by cheap energy, and they
indeed came along "every few years", easy pickings. This does not argue
for the existence of an inevitable stream of discoveries (guaranteed by
some benevolent God?) that will continue the great upward march forever.
Re many things running out, I agree that we are starting to learn how
to work around looming shortages in various critical materials, but many
of these are going to prove hopelessly expensive to implement. I offer
phosphorus as an example: where do you find a replacement for that,
feeding 7 billion people, when the mines run out?
Ol' Bab, who is a pessimist.
On 12/18/2012 12:59 AM, David Roberson wrote:
...Does anyone in this list actually believe that humanity is not
capable of inventing the way out of it's problems? If you are
correct, then this will be the first time in human history that it has
come true. I chuckle at the concept that there are no new
technologies that are awaiting that serendipitous discovery that comes
along every few years out of the blue. You and I do not know what it
is at the moment, but it will come around like clockwork. ...
Dave
