Crude said: Statistics have an important place, but I think this is sort of thing Rutherford was talking about when he said: if your experiment needs statistics, you should have done a better experiment. Axil replies: There is wisdom in this statement. The ultimate LENR causation is random and has not been properly controlled in most LENR experimentation. Crude is right in that LENR experimentation is hamstrung by inattention in controlling LENR causation.
A proper LENR experiment should zoom in on the probable cause of LENR and explore this causation in detail. As a example of the point here, concider the crack thory of LENR causation. A experiment should be done to standardize the crack and test it on a unit basis. I have seen how this is done in nanopasmonics as follows: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.6302 This is the crack production process as follows: A summary of the procedure is as follows. A single electron-beam lithography (EBL) step patterns the device on a doped silicon substrate with a 200 nm thermal silicon oxide. E-beam evaporation of a 1 nm Ti adhesion layer and 15 nm of Au, followed by with liftoff processing, creates a 120 nm wide by 700 nm long Au nanowire connecting two large triangular electrodes. After oxygen plasma cleaning, the device is ready for self-assembly of molecules. In this study we soak the samples in a 0.1 mM solution of trans-1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)-ethylene (BPE) in ethanol for 45 min, which leaves a self-assembled monolayer of BPE on the surface. Finally, the nanowires are electromigrated one at a time to form the nanojunctions with gaps ranging from 2-10 nm. Self-aligned junctions are fabricated with a two-step lithography process, initially developed in previous work. The first lithography step patterns the left side of the nanowire and left electrode on a doped silicon substrate with a 200 nm thermal silicon oxide. After developing, four layers are evaporated: 1 nm Ti, 15 nm Au, 1 nm SiO2, and 12 nm of Cr. Ti is used as an adhesion layer, and Au is the plasmonically active metal used for the device. The SiO2 acts as a barrier to prevent the Cr from diffusing into the Au and altering the gold’s optical properties, and the Cr layer is crucial for the self-aligning process. After evaporation, the chromium layer oxidizes and swells, creating a chromium-oxide ledge extending a few nanometers beyond the 5 metal layers. The Cr-oxide overhang acts as a shadow mask for the subsequent evaporation. After liftoff, the second EBL step patterns the right side of the nanowire overlapping the first side, as well as the other electrode. A subsequent evaporation deposits the same four layers, and the overlapping pattern along with Cr-oxide-mask “self-align” the two sides, creating the nanogaps. A Cr etch follows liftoff, which removes the overlapping material along with all the Cr. Finally, the SiO2 barrier layer is etched away with a brief buffered oxide etch, leaving a clean a 2-10 nm gap at the center of a 700 nm long and 120 nm wide nanowire connected to two Au electrodes. The devices are now finished and ready for molecules to be self-assembled on the surface. The optical microscope image (Figure 1a) shows an overview of a typical self-aligned structure, and the scanning electron microscope image (Figure 1b) displays the nanogap at the center of the nanowire. This illustrates the level of experimental preparation required to reduce random factors surrounding crack production. Until LENR experimentation reaches this level of experimental setup precision, LENR will remain a statistical based experimental study, where success is a hit or miss proposition. On Tue, May 14, 2013 at 1:03 PM, Edmund Storms <[email protected]>wrote: > Wanting to see the effect for one's self is apparently required for the > claim to be believed. Unfortunately, this is like asking to make a flash > drive yourself so that you can see it work. This can be done, but it takes > skill and special tools. You can make the F-P effect work if you take the > time, have the skill, and access to the required tools. However, because > the process is not understood, success only results by chance after > following a recipe. Several recipes are available. Some work better than > others. Because the effect is sensitive to unknown variables, the recipes > have to be followed exactly, which is difficult. If you are serious and > have access to the money and laboratory, your best approach is to work > closely with someone who has actually made the effect work. Reading a > recipe will not be good enough. > > As for using the alloy that is used to purify H2, this is a Pd-Ag alloy > containing about 23 at % Ag. This alloy is used because it does not expand > when H2 is added, hence does not crack. The claims made by Fleischmann are > very confusing because he claims the so-called Type A Pd that he claims > worked best is pure Pd, according to him. We do not know the role of the > Pd-Ag alloy. > > Ed Storms > > On May 14, 2013, at 10:36 AM, Jed Rothwell wrote: > > I meant to say it is NOT as if Storms runs 100 cells in cold fusion >> electrochemistry. >> >> That would be blind trial and error. That might produce a ~4% success >> rate. To improve the success rate, tou have to test the cathode material, >> characterize it, and know what you are working. If you do a good job you >> can increase the success rate to close to 100%. The next step would be to >> manufacture cathode material with the desired properties so that you do not >> have to spend a year laboriously looking for cathodes that happen to have >> the right properties by coincidence. If you have $100 million burning a >> hole in your pocket I am sure you could do that. >> >> - Jed >> >> >
