Joshua Cude <[email protected]> wrote:
> You do not need multiple experiments to prove the effect is real. One good >> one suffices. >> >> > > One good one that can be performed by anyone, or for anyone. > Oh sure. Just like anyone can build a tokamak, or show us a Higgs boson, or send a robot explorer to Mars. Or perform open heart surgery. Yes, we cannot believe a claim until anyone can do it. Yes, that has always been a scientific principle. That is why no one believes in . . . Oh, I don't know . . . Maybe 99.9% of all experiments and commercial products. I am sure you don't believe that a Prius automobile or a Watson computer can exist, since you cannot make one yourself. This requirement has never been part of science. You have set it up for cold fusion, and cold fusion alone, to give yourself yet another excuse to deny reality. > Such a thing doesn't exist, or it would have been done for the DOE panel. > The DoE panel could have visited a lab and seen a reaction, the way Garwin and later Duncan did. They chose not to. Or they could have believed hundreds of peer-reviewed paper from top notch labs, which is what scientists generally do. Instead, half the panel made up a bunch of absurd reasons to reject the data. Most of the critical comments boiled down to the assertion that theory overrides replicated experiments. This is a violation of the scientific method -- something neither the panel members nor you seem to understand. > And when I asked for an experiment that one could do with an expected > result, you linked to the Bayesian analysis. > No, I linked to McKubre, Storms, Miles, Will and others, and pointed out that the effect has been replicated in about ~180 labs, thousands of times. A Bayesian analysis shows that since the scientific method does work, in the life of the universe you would not see a mistake repeated thousands of times in hundreds of labs. Anyone with any knowledge of science or technology would know this. To put it another way, I have seen cars catch on fire because leaking fuel hoses or fuel injection failures. But what I have never seen, and will never see, would be a thousand automobiles lined up on Peachtree Road in Atlanta all suddenly and simultaneously catch on fire and burn up. - Jed
