If you give Jim Bowery all your money, you will experience eternal bliss with 77,777,7777 virgins.
If you don't give Jim Bowery all your money, you will experience eternal torment at the hands of establishment physicists. Now, invoke Pascal's wager substituting dis/belief in the above two propositions for belief in God and/or LENR. On Thu, Jul 25, 2013 at 4:11 PM, Alain Sepeda <[email protected]>wrote: > The notion of bet is interesting, but the philosophical questis misleading. > > I think you can more compare with the subprime bet : > > If you are a mainstream scientist > - if LENR is false and you say it is a fraud strongly enough to silence > dissenters, you keep your budget, your hope of Nobel, your ability to > publish > - if LENR is real and you say it is a fraud strongly enough to silence > dissenters, you keep your budget, your hope of Nobel, your ability to > publish > - if LENR is real and you say it is a fraud not enough to silence > dissenters, and all the community is caught as stupid as a group involbing > Nobel comitee, big labs and science comics, you keep your budget, your hope > of Nobel, your ability to publish > - if LENR is false and you say it is real, you lose you budget, your > position, your bobel, your access to Nature > - if LENR is true and you say it is real, you lose you budget, your > position, your Nobel, your access to Nature, until the reality explode > and... your are banned by ex-colleague furious you were right. > > so guess what a tenured academic "mouse in the cheese" decide ? > (same for corporate executive) > > now take an entrepreneur > > - if LENR is false and you don't jump in the adventure, you don't lose 10 > milion > - if LENR is false and you jump in the adventure, you lose 10 million > - if LENR is true and you don't jump in the adventure, you don't win 1 > billion > - if LENR is true and you jump in the adventure, you win 1 billion > > so guess what does the entrepreneur? > > > This is the lesson I learned from reading nassim nicholas taleb, and > roland benabou. > > > 2013/7/25 Axil Axil <[email protected]> > >> More thoughts on faith in LENR. >> >> It seems to me that LENR can be considered more like a religion going >> forward. >> >> Let us draw another analogy between religious faith and faith in LENR. >> >> Consider Pascal’s Wager. >> >> Pascal's Wager is an argument in apologetic philosophy which was devised >> by the seventeenth-century French philosopher, mathematician, and >> physicist, Blaise Pascal. It posits that humans all bet with their lives >> either that God exists or does not exist. Given the possibility that God >> actually does exist and assuming the infinite gain or loss associated with >> belief in God or with unbelief, a rational person should live as though God >> exists and seek to believe in God. If God does not actually exist, such a >> person will have only a finite loss (some pleasures, luxury, etc.). >> >> The philosophy uses the following logic (excerpts from Pensées, part III, >> §233): >> >> 1. "God is, or He is not" >> 2. A Game is being played... where heads or tails will turn up. >> 3. According to reason, you can defend neither of the propositions. >> 4. You must wager. (It's not optional.) >> 5. Let us weigh the gain and the loss in wagering that God is. Let us >> estimate these two chances. If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you >> lose nothing. >> 6. Wager, then, without hesitation that He is. (...) There is here an >> infinity of an infinitely happy life to gain, a chance of gain against a >> finite number of chances of loss, and what you stake is finite. And so our >> proposition is of infinite force, when there is the finite to stake in a >> game where there are equal risks of gain and of loss, and the infinite to >> gain. >> >> Pascal asks the reader to analyze the position of mankind, this crisis of >> existence and lack of complete understanding. While Mankind can discern a >> great deal through reason, it is also hopelessly removed from knowing >> everything through it. He describes Mankind as a finite being trapped >> within an incomprehensible infinity. >> >> >> >> Let us apply Pascels philosophical logic(risk-reward, gain-loss tradeoff >> analysis) to LENR. >> >> 1. "LENR is, or LENR is not" >> 2. A Game is being played... where heads or tails will turn up. >> 3. According to reason, you can defend neither of the propositions. >> 4. You must wager. (It's not optional.) >> 5. Let us weigh the gain and the loss in wagering that LENR is. Let >> us estimate these two chances. If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you >> lose nothing. >> 6. Wager, then, without hesitation that LENR is. (...) There is here >> an infinity of an infinitely happy life to gain, a chance of gain against >> a >> finite number of chances of loss, and what you stake is finite. And so our >> proposition is of infinite force, when there is the finite to stake in a >> game where there are equal risks of gain and of loss, and the infinite to >> gain. >> >> What will it cost if LENR is not? >> >> >> http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/24/arctic-methane-climate-change_n_3643917.html?utm_source=DailyBrief&utm_campaign=072513&utm_medium=email&utm_content=FeatureTitle >> >> Arctic Methane Release Due To Climate Change Could Cost Global Economy >> $60 Trillion, Study Reports >> >> This multi trillion cost estimate is far too low. >> >> We will be facing disease, pestilence, death, and massive property loss >> as a species in the triple digit trillion dollar range; crop failure, mass >> starvation, population collapse, all the worlds coastal cities under water, >> constant wars over "Lebensraum," (*living space), * desertification… you >> get the picture. >> >> If LENR is real, we avoid a near extinction event. >> >> The object lesson to be drawn by this gain-loss tradeoff analysis…we had >> better get LENR working and fielded as soon as possible. Don’t let the fear >> engendered by the loss of pride and some insignificant pittance in money >> that may result in being SCAMMED stop progress in LENR development. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> On Thu, Jul 25, 2013 at 1:30 AM, Peter Gluck <[email protected]>wrote: >> >>> My dear friends, >>> I have just published: >>> >>> >>> http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2013/07/defkalion-has-kept-its-promise.html >>> >>> Good news coming... >>> Peter >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Dr. Peter Gluck >>> Cluj, Romania >>> http://egooutpeters.blogspot.com >>> >> >> >
