Re: Bets Nicely put, Steven. RIP. ken
On Sat, Jul 27, 2013 at 12:28 PM, DJ Cravens <[email protected]> wrote: > yes, there is market inefficiency due to risk aversion. > Black swans exist. > > D2 > > > ------------------------------ > From: [email protected] > To: [email protected] > Subject: RE: [Vo]:MFMP on a possible independent report of DGT's Hyperion > Date: Sat, 27 Jul 2013 13:09:49 -0500 > > > From "Blaze": > > > > ... > > > > > In terms of my credentials though, which might be more interesting, I > spent about the > > > last 8 years or so on Intrade making buckets of money on making big bets > on highly > > > improbable events like this which came true. The opportunities for > profit there were > > > incredible. Some examples, I made money on Obama on McCain winning their > > > primaries by making early bets (admittedly though I had hedged a bit, > but was over > > > all long on them). > > > > "Buckets of money." you say. > > > > It's obvious to me that it takes a large and well-integrated skill set to > make "buckets of money" betting on improbable events. (On a related note, > one of my mutual funds is a "contra" fund. It often seems to do better than > the average fund.) > > > > On a related topic, earlier in my life I tried my hand in the commodity > markets. I suspect trading commodities shares many similarities with the > kind of skill set you have acquired. In a sense, the commodities you bet on > are futures. It's anyone's guess whether the types of futures you buy into > will ripen or go sour when it comes time to cash in. > > > > As for me and my commodity trading adventures, I'll grant you that it was > a fun and exciting time for me... while it lasted. Eventually, I lost all > the money I had set aside for this adventure. I'm sure I lost it all due to > my own lack of having acquired a sufficient collection of skill sets, and > the fact that I didn't possess an appropriate psychological propensity for > immediate "trading", and finally not having timely data in which to make > proper assessments on whether to bury or short the commodity. > > > > I did manage to eventually rationalize my financial losses as having > acquired some valuable experiences in the art of trading futures. It’s not > for the faint of heart! Of course, while I paid my tuition fees I flunked > the course. On cannot pass at everything they dabble in. ;-) In the > aftermath I eventually learned that many professional commodity traders > manage to stay in business because there's a constant influx of newbies > (just like me) who come in with the goal of making money. What typically > happens, however, is that the vast majority of these newbies end up > transferring bulk of their bank accounts into the accounts of the > professionals. An irony that did not escape me was the fact that the only > way the professionals tend to stay in business is to constantly sell to > naive newbies a manufactured hope that there is money to be made in trading > futures. In fact, that's how all forms of professional gambling manage to > survive. Granted, an extremely small percentage of brand new "newbie" > traders actually DO end up become good at the skill, but as someone was > known to have sed: A sucker is born every minute. > > > > In the end I think the biggest [moral] lesson I learned completing this > particular course was to ask myself, what kind of a contribution was I > actually making to the world? The more I thought about it, not very much. I > then asked myself, what if I *had* become successful? What would I have > then been able to put my grave stone? > > > > *STEVEN VINCENT JOHNSON* > > 1952 - 2031 > > > > HIs contribution to the world was that > > he made a lot of money extracting it from the wallets of others > > who were also trying to make a lot of money > > attempting to do the same thing to him. > > * * * > > RIP > > > > Just as in the fine art of betting, commodity trading works by profiting > from the losses of others. Inculcating this realization did not set well > with me. In a sense I actually became relieved of the fact that I had lost > money. It meant that I had not profited from the financial losses of > others. I realize this was a rationalization on my part. Nevertheless, my > own "losses" left me with a clearer conscience. > > > > Based on my own memories I will grant you that it probably IS a rush to > realize how smart one must be in order to take money (willing so) from > others, and to be able to do it in a perfectly legal way! The fact is that > a capitalistic economy needs transactional activity of this sort in order > for the markets to remain dynamic and liquid. So... in a sense, THATS, the > "service" traders and betters are contributing to the system. Hey! It's > just money. ...hopefully, YOUR, money, and not mine. Nothing personal! > > > > For some inexplicable reason, I don’t think I personally would feel > comfortable advertising the acquisition of such a skill set on my > gravestone. > > > > But by all means, have fun with your "buckets of money." > > > > Regards, > > Steven Vincent Johnson > > svjart.OrionWorks.com > > www.zazzle.com/orionworks > > tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/newvortex/ >
