Our entire economic system is based on this thing called money. It's how we value opportunities. I'm not a materialist, but I do appreciate having this objective measurement.
Is it perfect? Obviously not. But it'll have to do until something better comes along. This objective measurement is particularly useful for trying to determine a reasonable probability of LENR existing. Why? Because my motivations are perfectly aligned .. I want it to be true, because it'd be a great investment opportunity, but I have to make sure it's true (I must be skeptical) because if it isn't true I will lose out. Who else has such clearly aligned motivations? Get a good group of us, middle our estimates appropriately (perhaps weighted by track record), and our output will be a useful indicator of the likelihood that this is all true. (The problem with Intrade was it wasn't weighted by track record and was open to manipulation by those with more money and desire to see an outcome than need for profit.) Why is this useful? Because it helps planners have some reasonable indication of how to make decisions on policy and planning for the future. On Sun, Jul 28, 2013 at 5:18 PM, ken deboer <[email protected]> wrote: > Re: Bets > > Nicely put, Steven. RIP. > ken > > > On Sat, Jul 27, 2013 at 12:28 PM, DJ Cravens <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> yes, there is market inefficiency due to risk aversion. >> Black swans exist. >> >> D2 >> >> >> ________________________________ >> From: [email protected] >> To: [email protected] >> Subject: RE: [Vo]:MFMP on a possible independent report of DGT's Hyperion >> Date: Sat, 27 Jul 2013 13:09:49 -0500 >> >> >> From "Blaze": >> >> >> >> ... >> >> >> >> > In terms of my credentials though, which might be more interesting, I >> > spent about the >> >> > last 8 years or so on Intrade making buckets of money on making big bets >> > on highly >> >> > improbable events like this which came true. The opportunities for >> > profit there were >> >> > incredible. Some examples, I made money on Obama on McCain winning their >> >> > primaries by making early bets (admittedly though I had hedged a bit, >> > but was over >> >> > all long on them). >> >> >> >> "Buckets of money." you say. >> >> >> >> It's obvious to me that it takes a large and well-integrated skill set to >> make "buckets of money" betting on improbable events. (On a related note, >> one of my mutual funds is a "contra" fund. It often seems to do better than >> the average fund.) >> >> >> >> On a related topic, earlier in my life I tried my hand in the commodity >> markets. I suspect trading commodities shares many similarities with the >> kind of skill set you have acquired. In a sense, the commodities you bet on >> are futures. It's anyone's guess whether the types of futures you buy into >> will ripen or go sour when it comes time to cash in. >> >> >> >> As for me and my commodity trading adventures, I'll grant you that it was >> a fun and exciting time for me... while it lasted. Eventually, I lost all >> the money I had set aside for this adventure. I'm sure I lost it all due to >> my own lack of having acquired a sufficient collection of skill sets, and >> the fact that I didn't possess an appropriate psychological propensity for >> immediate "trading", and finally not having timely data in which to make >> proper assessments on whether to bury or short the commodity. >> >> >> >> I did manage to eventually rationalize my financial losses as having >> acquired some valuable experiences in the art of trading futures. It’s not >> for the faint of heart! Of course, while I paid my tuition fees I flunked >> the course. On cannot pass at everything they dabble in. ;-) In the >> aftermath I eventually learned that many professional commodity traders >> manage to stay in business because there's a constant influx of newbies >> (just like me) who come in with the goal of making money. What typically >> happens, however, is that the vast majority of these newbies end up >> transferring bulk of their bank accounts into the accounts of the >> professionals. An irony that did not escape me was the fact that the only >> way the professionals tend to stay in business is to constantly sell to >> naive newbies a manufactured hope that there is money to be made in trading >> futures. In fact, that's how all forms of professional gambling manage to >> survive. Granted, an extremely small percentage of brand new "newbie" >> traders actually DO end up become good at the skill, but as someone was >> known to have sed: A sucker is born every minute. >> >> >> >> In the end I think the biggest [moral] lesson I learned completing this >> particular course was to ask myself, what kind of a contribution was I >> actually making to the world? The more I thought about it, not very much. I >> then asked myself, what if I had become successful? What would I have then >> been able to put my grave stone? >> >> >> >> STEVEN VINCENT JOHNSON >> >> 1952 - 2031 >> >> >> >> HIs contribution to the world was that >> >> he made a lot of money extracting it from the wallets of others >> >> who were also trying to make a lot of money >> >> attempting to do the same thing to him. >> >> * * * >> >> RIP >> >> >> >> Just as in the fine art of betting, commodity trading works by profiting >> from the losses of others. Inculcating this realization did not set well >> with me. In a sense I actually became relieved of the fact that I had lost >> money. It meant that I had not profited from the financial losses of others. >> I realize this was a rationalization on my part. Nevertheless, my own >> "losses" left me with a clearer conscience. >> >> >> >> Based on my own memories I will grant you that it probably IS a rush to >> realize how smart one must be in order to take money (willing so) from >> others, and to be able to do it in a perfectly legal way! The fact is that a >> capitalistic economy needs transactional activity of this sort in order for >> the markets to remain dynamic and liquid. So... in a sense, THATS, the >> "service" traders and betters are contributing to the system. Hey! It's just >> money. ...hopefully, YOUR, money, and not mine. Nothing personal! >> >> >> >> For some inexplicable reason, I don’t think I personally would feel >> comfortable advertising the acquisition of such a skill set on my >> gravestone. >> >> >> >> But by all means, have fun with your "buckets of money." >> >> >> >> Regards, >> >> Steven Vincent Johnson >> >> svjart.OrionWorks.com >> >> www.zazzle.com/orionworks >> >> tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/newvortex/ > >
