On Mon, Aug 5, 2013 at 9:40 PM, Kevin O'Malley <[email protected]> wrote: > > ....Eventually the price itself is a tremendous indicator. >
My experience with non-monetary prediction markets is that the pathological popular belief system will prevail until the last minute and then the price will reflect reality. What is needed is a prediction market that rewards one not simply for having purchased as a low price, but also for the time integral of the misvaluation of the popular pathological belief system.
