Kevin O'Malley <[email protected]> wrote: > > I think prediction markets actually CAN be useful to "confirm or deny > assertions about scientific or engineering", . . . >
Sorry, but I still say this is a mechanism to measure people's opinions, or their feelings. Opinions and feelings have no bearing on experimental reality. That reality exists independently of the human mind. The only way to measure it is with instruments. You are measuring public opinion vis a vis cold fusion. This is an interesting thing to measure. It is worthwhile. I would even say it is important to measure, and I would appreciate if people would keep me informed. A prediction market seems to be remarkably reliable way to measure it. But it does not and cannot in any way reflect that scientific reality of various cold fusion claims. As I said, trying to measure that with a prediction market is like trying to predict an election by measuring temperatures. It is the wrong tool. Another way to keep tabs on public opinion regarding cold fusion is watch the mass media through Google News Alerts, or to watch Wikipedia. Based on those two metrics we are no closer to success than we were 20 years ago. This tells me that success can only be achieved by methods that do not call for mass media participation. Fortunately, with the Internet, communication is easier than it used to be. That is why the mass media has been weakened. That is why, for example, the Boston Globe was sold for $70 million a few days ago after being purchased in 1993 for $1.1 billion, and why Jeff Bezos just bought the Washington Post for $250 million. - Jed
