The discussion is about the "value of prediction markets". It is not a bet on human nature, because as you have saidm "It is reasonable to bet that people will act in a sane way, because in most cases they do. Civilization would not work otherwise." Human nature is not the variable in this bet. The outcome of whether it will be replicated & published is the variable.
And you're overlooking the cumulative effect of what can happen with these markets. Let's say Intrade wasn't overwhelmed, decided to go ahead with the 2nd contract about Dr. Boss's paper getting replicated, and even went forward with a 3rd paper getting replicated (such as, perhaps, Dr. Hagelstein's experiment). By the time those 3 contracts were paid out, the price for a LENR experiment getting replicated would start out at 1:3 instead of 3:1 against. That's where the "value" of such markets starts to come into play because someone like you who goes on the internet and advocates for LENR could actually make money doing it, and your critics would slink away, cowards that they are. blaze spinnaker <[email protected]> wrote: > > To give another dramatic example, suppose at 1:00 pm on the afternoon of > > December 17, 1903, you were take a poll about whether man can fly. > > What does that have to do with the value of prediction markets? > Jed wrote: I mean only that prediction markets cannot be used to confirm or deny assertions about scientific or engineering, such as whether airplanes can exist or not. Prediction markets are the wrong tool for that. They cannot affect physical reality as measured by instruments and photographs. On Mon, Aug 5, 2013 at 8:28 PM, Jed Rothwell <[email protected]> wrote: > Kevin O'Malley <[email protected]> wrote: > > >> The fact that editors in the past had overcome their own internal >> objections on a few rare LENR developments in the past would indicate this >> was a rational bet, but not necessarily a guaranteed one. >> > > Sure, I agree. It is reasonable to bet that people will act in a sane way, > because in most cases they do. Civilization would not work otherwise. > > The world does seem crazy at times. Civilizations do collapse, the way > Europe did in 1914 and 1939, but generally speaking most of the time the > center holds. People do their jobs. Progress is made. > > > >> How would you have worded the contract differently? >> > > The wording seems fine. > > I am not saying this is a bad bet. I am saying it is bet on human nature, > not on the nature of cold fusion. > > - Jed > >
