James Bowery <[email protected]> wrote: > > My experience with non-monetary prediction markets is that the > pathological popular belief system will prevail until the last minute and > then the price will reflect reality. >
Yes. When public opinion is wildly wrong, the adjustment to reality tends to be sudden. It is catastrophic. It is usually triggered by a dramatic event that few people anticipate. For example, the stock market crashes. People who were in Japan in 1945 have often said they never expected the nation would surrender and the war would end. Some thought they would win. Others thought that every last person would be killed in fighting or by starvation. Good news about technology tends to sneak up on people. The advantages of automobiles, computers and the Internet was apparent to early adopters, and then gradually the rest of society caught on. Only the airplane was a major surprise. Cold fusion will not follow this pattern because for many people it is an unmitigated disaster. Especially for the first people who will be affected by it. Prominent scientists who have opposed it will see their reputations and careers destroyed. Energy companies will face ruin. - Jed
