Blaze Spinnaker <[email protected]> wrote:
> I have a history of successfully making such 'arbitrary' assessments based > on speculation / gossip / rumours / second hand information .. generally by > measuring the credibility of the individuals that I gather such information > from. > That sounds like an intuitive process rather than something you can put a specific number on. You should say "I have a strong intuitive sense that X is likely." That is a more valid assertion than saying "I put the likelihood of X at 35.67%." The objection here is not that you are speculating. Speculation is fine. The problem is that your numbers appear to be pulled out of . . . a hat. If you are going to put specific numbers on an estimate you should have a quantitative set of reasons for using those particular numbers and not some other numbers. You should be able to explain those reasons. It sounds less impressive to say, "generally speaking I think . . ." or "it seems to me the tendency is . . ." 35% sounds more precise and more scientific. But I see no science here. Intuition should not be denigrated. A person with good intuition can make a lot of money betting, or on Wall Street. Generals and admirals have won battles with it. But putting a value of 35% on intuition is silly. Intuition cannot be quantified, by definition. (I personally do not have a shred of intuition in me, or superstition. . . . Except for one thing! If the Chinese ever build an exact replica of the Titanic -- as they threaten to do -- and someone invites me to take the maiden voyage across the North Atlantic, I will NOT go. Not, not, not. Not even if you pay me. There are some things that no sailor will do, and even unto the second generation, that no son of a merchant marine sailor will not. Period. Under any circumstances. No thank you, out of the question, no sirree. With 95.68% certainty I say that's tempting fate.) - Jed
