Andreas Ramos writes:
> The Microsoft memo is interesting. It discusses Linux on its merits and its
> weaknesses.
>
> Linux is a low-level, short-term threat to Microsoft. The memo points out
> that it's one thing to work for free on a popular movement and another to
> actually finish a complete environment. A complete user environment can't be
> pasted on, after the house is built. It has to be planned from the very
> beginning. Linux is just an OS, without the intergated environment that one
> finds in Windows or Macintosh.
There's a germ of truth in what you're saying. Taking a leaf
from Nielsen's _Usability Engineering_, usability isn't something you
can spread on top of the product after you've built it, like peanut
butter.
On the other hand, I wouldn't call MS-Windows anything resembling
an integrated environment, and X Windows has a slew of features and
basic good design that both MS-Windows and the Mac GUI lack. All Linux
needs to really kill Microsoft is:
1) The WINE (WINdows Emulator) project to reach completion,
building in compatibility for that last 10% or so of windows
applications.
2) The SEUL project (Simple End-User Linux) to develop an "out of
the box" Linux distribution for typical end-users (the RedHat
distribution is already dangerously near a painless installation, but
for true end-users it's still got a ways to go).
3) Somebody to design a "dumbed down" interface that lets the
typical end user get along with their life instead of showing them
all the guts of the machine.
What I really hope for, once this level is reached, is that
somebody will develop a plug-n-play installation designed to be
installed "alongside" MS-Windows and take over the machine. There are
already quite effective MS-Windows look-alike desktops, all they need
is a program to install the system on an existing MS-Windows system.
The user won't be able to tell that anything's changed - except that
their system will run lighter (Linux takes a lot less memory), tighter
(effectively adding a higher-end CPU), without crashing on a regular
basis :-).
> Anyone who has spent time in political movements knows the three phases of a
> movement:
As does anybody who's read Burke. Mass movements go through stages:
A Learned Man writes a Book (Historically he dies before
seeing anything come of it).
A Charismatic Leader adopts it as the core of a Mass Movement
(He's usually assasinated young).
A Bureaucrat consolidates and organizes the movement.
> Linus Thorvald has already finished the first phase; he got a
> job.
Linus had a job when he developed Linux. He was a grad student.
And surprise, surprise, he's still heavily involved with Linux and
the further development.
> Linux is in the second phase; Red Hat and other organizations are
> taking over Linux and establishing it as a credible enterprise. This
> means managers, investments, and marketing. This will also drive
> away the volunteerism.
Certainly there are concerns in the Linux community over the
course of commercial development. Attitudes about free vs. commercial
vs. open-source software range over the entire spectrum. But it looks
like the majority, the core of the crowd that get the work done, are
satisfied with the current direction in commercializing Linux support.
Most of the distributions sell support and packaging, but also provide
their Linux distribution free via FTP (which you can't even claim is
no-cost for them, since they have to pay for the bandwidth, but I'm sure
they could get somebody to donate archive space). I say most and not
all because there may be some distributions I'm not familiar with.
> Netscape's browser is now open source. Yet the Microsoft memo points out
> that Netscape developer interest has fallen very fast. Is anyone going to
> spend dozens of hours to improve the Netscape browser and thereby improve
> Netscape founder Jim Clark's $500 million dollar stock portfolio? Any
> Netscape fans here willing to work long hours for free for Netscape and make
> megamillionaires yet richer?
Of course the interest fell off very fast, just as interest in
any big event is major in the first few days and then falls off. The
real issue is not how much did interest drop over the first few months
but how much is drops (or rises) over the next year or two. And the
issue is not money, but access. People like open source not just
because it's often (usually) free, but because they can get at the
source and know that it works, and because bug fixes aren't dependent
on one company's budget and agenda.
> The real casualty of Linux is (as I pointed out here several weeks ago)
> other UNIX companies. Linux is a fatal threat to SUN. Microsoft itself
> points out that Linux performs better than other UNIX and that it runs on
> everything, incl. a 486 in the closet. SUN's UNIX, on the other hand, runs
> only on SUN workstations. Linux is better than SUN's UNIX and it doesn't
> need SUN workstations.
Sun's always had a conflict between their hardware and software
efforts. It's not surprising to find contention between Sun and Linux,
but you'll notice that even Sun is now starting to offer more support
for Linux (specifically support for porting the JDK to Linux). Most of
Sun's breads 'n butter hardware sales are in the higher-end hardware,
in any event.
> One could suspect that Microsoft wrote this for public release to attack
> SUN. It's FUD strategy (FUD=fear, uncertainty, and doubt) against SUN's
> UNIX. Dozens of Linux admins are going to wave the Microsoft memo at their
> bosses and say "See! Even Microsoft says Linux is better than SUN." Managers
> will be happy to replace SUN machines with cheaper Intel machines and free
> Linux.
Interesting possibility, except that Microsoft is trying to get
NT servers in there. This memo probably hurts MS's NT efforts more
than it hurts Sun.
Steven J. Owens
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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