GoranSMilovanovic added a comment.

  @Jan_Dittrich
  
  > Question: What is the relation between past length of participation in the 
Wikidata community and the likelihood to stop participating?
  
  @Jan_Dittrich I had to impose some definitions in order to be able to 
precisely formulate the effect that we are looking for. Please feel free to 
suggest any changes of the following methodological approach.
  
  - **Definitions**:
    - **Q1. When do we say that a user has left Wikidata?**
    - **A1.** (1) We look at the procession of months since user registration, 
each month coded as active (`1`) or inactive (`0`); (2) We look at all 
sequences of inactive months in a particular user's revision history and find 
the lengthiest one; (3) if the respective user's revision history ends in a 
sequence of non-active months, we compare the length of that latest period of 
inactivity with the previous lengthiest period of inactivity; (4) if the former 
is lengthier than the later, we declare that the user has left Wikidata.
    - **Q2. How do we measure for how long has the user been active before 
leaving Wikidata, given that any user can have interspersed periods of activity 
and inactivity?**
    - **A2.** We count all active months for a user before it was declared that 
the user has stopped editing. Motivation: that is how account for the 
difference between (a) a user who has edited for six months, *each month*, and 
left, ie `111111000...`, and (b) a user who has edited here and there for six 
months and then left, e.g. `101001000...`.
    - **Q3. What about the users who are still active (in the sense of not 
obeying to the definition given in **A1** )?**
    - **A3.** We say that their measure of the length of activity is simply the 
count of their active months, and thus the measures in **A3** and **A2** are 
comparable.
  
  **N.B.** All registered users that have never edited at all are filtered out 
in this analysis.
  
  Here is how it looks like:
  
  F34466137: TotalActive_ProbabilityLeave.png 
<https://phabricator.wikimedia.org/F34466137>

TASK DETAIL
  https://phabricator.wikimedia.org/T282563

EMAIL PREFERENCES
  https://phabricator.wikimedia.org/settings/panel/emailpreferences/

To: GoranSMilovanovic
Cc: awight, WMDE-leszek, Manuel, Lydia_Pintscher, Aklapper, Jan_Dittrich, 
Invadibot, maantietaja, Akuckartz, Nandana, Lahi, Gq86, GoranSMilovanovic, 
QZanden, LawExplorer, _jensen, rosalieper, Scott_WUaS, Wikidata-bugs, aude, 
Mbch331
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