Yes, absolutely, it is. Thank you for your message. Peace and best wishes.
Xi On Jan 13, 4:26 pm, CincyBabe <[email protected]> wrote: > This is no doubt a fallout from the banking and credit mess, Xi. When > sales fall, and stores cannot get credit, they can't order new stock. > With the US reliance on Chinese goods, I'm sure that is a major > factor. > > On Jan 13, 9:16 am, "Xi Ling" <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > My comment: Foreign trade has two main indicators to measure. > > > One is size of trade. As a consequence of international collapse of trading > > that is close to 50% since July, export and import fell. Its consequence is > > an inmediate fall in the economic activity of that economy, in this case > > China´s economy. Everybody predicts that this rate will not rise in the near > > future as Europe and USA demand is declining and nobody can predict when it > > will rise again (if it does). That is why VP Xi and Premier Wen are urging > > all economic areas and all entrepreneurs to expand to new markets. > > > The second indicator is surplus (or deficit). As many predicted, this rate > > is flat. Imports fall as much as exports. Therefore, surplus does not fall > > yet. We cannot expect that it remains like that as soon as domestic demand > > starts to grow as much as promoted through the stimulous plan. Probably we > > will see early signs since March or April, and a clear turn of its trend > > since June-July. On the one hand it is possitive because it allows to sum > > reserves to be used later, sort of national savings. But on the other hand > > it means that domestic demand is not growing yet, or not enough. Obviously > > it is early and the first perception is possitive: government are investing > > more and more, and consumers have balanced their attitude toward a more > > balanced rate savings-consumption, the third leg, corporations, will join > > soon. We should pay attention to this chart around March-July, f we do not > > see signs of a more balanced import-export rate, or rather, if imports fall > > as much as exports, we will have a problem. > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > Xi > > >http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/13/content_10650248.htm > > > BEIJING, Jan. 13 -- China's exports fell two months in a row for the first > > time in a decade, reflecting the impact of the global financial crisis on > > the "workshop of the world". > > > According to Customs figures, to be released Tuesday, exports in December > > dropped 2.8 percent year-on-year, after falling 2.2 percent in November. > > > Imports in December dropped, too, to 21.3 percent year-on-year, after having > > fallen 17.9 per cent the previous month. > > > But since the drops took place in November and December only, the country > > will still see an impressive 17.2 percent rise in exports and 18.2 percent > > increase in imports for the whole of last year. The previous year's records > > were much more impressive, though, with exports and imports both recording a > > 20-plus percent growth. > > > Last month, the exports and imports volumes were 111.2 billion U.S. > > dollars and 72.2 billion dollars - and in November, they were 114.9 billion > > dollars and 74.9 billion dollars. > > > The falling trend in exports is likely to continue in the first two > > quarters of this year, some Beijing-based trade experts said yesterday. > > > Su Chang, macroeconomic analyst with China Economic Business Monitor, said > > foreign trade could decline further and would pick up when the U.S. economy > > showed signs of recovery. > > > The country is likely to see "almost zero growth" in exports in the first > > quarter of this year, and perhaps "a fall of 6 percent" in the second > > quarter, Su said. > > > The drop in exports has been attributed to falling demand in the European > > Union (EU) and the U.S., the country's top two trade partners. > > > Ma Jun, Deutsche Bank Greater China's chief economist, said that given the > > state of the EU economy, China's exports could grow only 6 percent this > > year. > > > The trade experts said the other threat to Chinese exports could come from > > Vietnam, India and Pakistan because they are offering lower prices for goods > > being made there. > > > The government has announced a 586-billion dollars package to boost > > domestic demand. But, Su said, it is too early for those measures to have > > taken effect. > > > xin_532010613104643728623.jpg > > 50KViewDownload --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
