50%! Oh, my. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the world markets to right themselves again. Thank you for all the information, Xi.
On Jan 13, 12:34 pm, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote: > My comment: It is happenning worldwide. International trade fell > almost 50% in just 6 months. > > Peace and best wishes. > > Xi > > Drop in U.S. Trade Gap ‘Slim Comfort’ as Exports Keep > Plunginghttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPF7lI_nwNVA&refe... > > Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. exports fell in November, capping the > biggest four-month decline in more than a decade and signaling trade > will contribute little to economic recovery, even as the recession > depresses imports. > > Exports decreased 15.2 percent from August to November, the most since > at least 1992, according to Commerce Department figures released today > in Washington. The trade deficit narrowed to $40.4 billion, the > smallest since November 2003, as imports fell to the lowest level in > three years. > > “The key message from this report is bad news,” said Nigel Gault, > chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, > Massachusetts. “It is slim comfort that the U.S. cut its demand for > imports more rapidly than the rest of the world cut its demand for > U.S. exports. That might cushion the U.S. downturn a little, but it is > not a route to recovery.” > > American exports and imports are both contracting as the global > economy faces the first simultaneous recession in the U.S., Japan and > the euro region in the postwar era. While plummeting demand helps trim > the nation’s purchases of foreign goods, falling exports of U.S.-made > products will hobble American factories and jobs. > > Trade has contributed to growth in the U.S., the world’s largest > economy, since the first three months of 2007. > > Americans bought 12 percent fewer goods and services from abroad, > reducing imports to $183.2 billion as demand for foreign crude oil, > automobiles, computers and televisions sagged. Exports dropped 5.8 > percent to $142.8 billion in November, today’s figures showed. Foreign > purchases of automobiles were the lowest since October 2006. > > Decline in Trade > > “The real story is the contraction in important export volumes that > underscores the decline in world trade,” John Ryding, chief economist > at RDQ Economics LLC in New York, wrote in a note to clients. “An > economy cannot grow its way out of a recession by reducing imports, > especially one the size of the U.S.” > > Slumping demand for American-made computers and semiconductors > contributed to the drop in November exports. Intel Corp., the world’s > largest chipmaker, said this month that fourth-quarter sales dropped > 23 percent, more than it projected in November, as the global > recession intensified. > > Intel Chief Executive Officer Paul Otellini, 58, has said he expects > the current U.S. recession will be the worst of his lifetime. The > Santa Clara, California-based company’s chips run about 80 percent of > the world’s PCs, making it a bellwether for technology spending. > > On Jan 13, 4:26 pm, CincyBabe <[email protected]> wrote: > > > This is no doubt a fallout from the banking and credit mess, Xi. When > > sales fall, and stores cannot get credit, they can't order new stock. > > With the US reliance on Chinese goods, I'm sure that is a major > > factor. > > > On Jan 13, 9:16 am, "Xi Ling" <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > My comment: Foreign trade has two main indicators to measure. > > > > One is size of trade. As a consequence of international collapse of > > > trading > > > that is close to 50% since July, export and import fell. Its consequence > > > is > > > an inmediate fall in the economic activity of that economy, in this case > > > China´s economy. Everybody predicts that this rate will not rise in the > > > near > > > future as Europe and USA demand is declining and nobody can predict when > > > it > > > will rise again (if it does). That is why VP Xi and Premier Wen are urging > > > all economic areas and all entrepreneurs to expand to new markets. > > > > The second indicator is surplus (or deficit). As many predicted, this rate > > > is flat. Imports fall as much as exports. Therefore, surplus does not fall > > > yet. We cannot expect that it remains like that as soon as domestic demand > > > starts to grow as much as promoted through the stimulous plan. Probably we > > > will see early signs since March or April, and a clear turn of its trend > > > since June-July. On the one hand it is possitive because it allows to sum > > > reserves to be used later, sort of national savings. But on the other hand > > > it means that domestic demand is not growing yet, or not enough. Obviously > > > it is early and the first perception is possitive: government are > > > investing > > > more and more, and consumers have balanced their attitude toward a more > > > balanced rate savings-consumption, the third leg, corporations, will join > > > soon. We should pay attention to this chart around March-July, f we do not > > > see signs of a more balanced import-export rate, or rather, if imports > > > fall > > > as much as exports, we will have a problem. > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > Xi > > > >http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/13/content_10650248.htm > > > > BEIJING, Jan. 13 -- China's exports fell two months in a row for the first > > > time in a decade, reflecting the impact of the global financial crisis on > > > the "workshop of the world". > > > > According to Customs figures, to be released Tuesday, exports in > > > December > > > dropped 2.8 percent year-on-year, after falling 2.2 percent in November. > > > > Imports in December dropped, too, to 21.3 percent year-on-year, after > > > having > > > fallen 17.9 per cent the previous month. > > > > But since the drops took place in November and December only, the > > > country > > > will still see an impressive 17.2 percent rise in exports and 18.2 percent > > > increase in imports for the whole of last year. The previous year's > > > records > > > were much more impressive, though, with exports and imports both > > > recording a > > > 20-plus percent growth. > > > > Last month, the exports and imports volumes were 111.2 billion U.S. > > > dollars and 72.2 billion dollars - and in November, they were 114.9 > > > billion > > > dollars and 74.9 billion dollars. > > > > The falling trend in exports is likely to continue in the first two > > > quarters of this year, some Beijing-based trade experts said yesterday. > > > > Su Chang, macroeconomic analyst with China Economic Business Monitor, > > > said > > > foreign trade could decline further and would pick up when the U.S. > > > economy > > > showed signs of recovery. > > > > The country is likely to see "almost zero growth" in exports in the > > > first > > > quarter of this year, and perhaps "a fall of 6 percent" in the second > > > quarter, Su said. > > > > The drop in exports has been attributed to falling demand in the > > > European > > > Union (EU) and the U.S., the country's top two trade partners. > > > > Ma Jun, Deutsche Bank Greater China's chief economist, said that given > > > the > > > state of the EU economy, China's exports could grow only 6 percent this > > > year. > > > > The trade experts said the other threat to Chinese exports could come > > > from > > > Vietnam, India and Pakistan because they are offering lower prices for > > > goods > > > being made there. > > > > The government has announced a 586-billion dollars package to boost > > > domestic demand. But, Su said, it is too early for those measures to have > > > taken effect. > > > > xin_532010613104643728623.jpg > > > 50KViewDownload --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
