This is no doubt a fallout from the banking and credit mess, Xi. When sales fall, and stores cannot get credit, they can't order new stock. With the US reliance on Chinese goods, I'm sure that is a major factor.
On Jan 13, 9:16 am, "Xi Ling" <[email protected]> wrote: > My comment: Foreign trade has two main indicators to measure. > > One is size of trade. As a consequence of international collapse of trading > that is close to 50% since July, export and import fell. Its consequence is > an inmediate fall in the economic activity of that economy, in this case > China´s economy. Everybody predicts that this rate will not rise in the near > future as Europe and USA demand is declining and nobody can predict when it > will rise again (if it does). That is why VP Xi and Premier Wen are urging > all economic areas and all entrepreneurs to expand to new markets. > > The second indicator is surplus (or deficit). As many predicted, this rate > is flat. Imports fall as much as exports. Therefore, surplus does not fall > yet. We cannot expect that it remains like that as soon as domestic demand > starts to grow as much as promoted through the stimulous plan. Probably we > will see early signs since March or April, and a clear turn of its trend > since June-July. On the one hand it is possitive because it allows to sum > reserves to be used later, sort of national savings. But on the other hand > it means that domestic demand is not growing yet, or not enough. Obviously > it is early and the first perception is possitive: government are investing > more and more, and consumers have balanced their attitude toward a more > balanced rate savings-consumption, the third leg, corporations, will join > soon. We should pay attention to this chart around March-July, f we do not > see signs of a more balanced import-export rate, or rather, if imports fall > as much as exports, we will have a problem. > > Peace and best wishes. > > Xi > > http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/13/content_10650248.htm > > BEIJING, Jan. 13 -- China's exports fell two months in a row for the first > time in a decade, reflecting the impact of the global financial crisis on > the "workshop of the world". > > According to Customs figures, to be released Tuesday, exports in December > dropped 2.8 percent year-on-year, after falling 2.2 percent in November. > > Imports in December dropped, too, to 21.3 percent year-on-year, after having > fallen 17.9 per cent the previous month. > > But since the drops took place in November and December only, the country > will still see an impressive 17.2 percent rise in exports and 18.2 percent > increase in imports for the whole of last year. The previous year's records > were much more impressive, though, with exports and imports both recording a > 20-plus percent growth. > > Last month, the exports and imports volumes were 111.2 billion U.S. > dollars and 72.2 billion dollars - and in November, they were 114.9 billion > dollars and 74.9 billion dollars. > > The falling trend in exports is likely to continue in the first two > quarters of this year, some Beijing-based trade experts said yesterday. > > Su Chang, macroeconomic analyst with China Economic Business Monitor, said > foreign trade could decline further and would pick up when the U.S. economy > showed signs of recovery. > > The country is likely to see "almost zero growth" in exports in the first > quarter of this year, and perhaps "a fall of 6 percent" in the second > quarter, Su said. > > The drop in exports has been attributed to falling demand in the European > Union (EU) and the U.S., the country's top two trade partners. > > Ma Jun, Deutsche Bank Greater China's chief economist, said that given the > state of the EU economy, China's exports could grow only 6 percent this > year. > > The trade experts said the other threat to Chinese exports could come from > Vietnam, India and Pakistan because they are offering lower prices for goods > being made there. > > The government has announced a 586-billion dollars package to boost > domestic demand. But, Su said, it is too early for those measures to have > taken effect. > > xin_532010613104643728623.jpg > 50KViewDownload --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
