My comment: It is happenning worldwide. International trade fell almost 50% in just 6 months.
Peace and best wishes. Xi Drop in U.S. Trade Gap ‘Slim Comfort’ as Exports Keep Plunging http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPF7lI_nwNVA&refer=home Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. exports fell in November, capping the biggest four-month decline in more than a decade and signaling trade will contribute little to economic recovery, even as the recession depresses imports. Exports decreased 15.2 percent from August to November, the most since at least 1992, according to Commerce Department figures released today in Washington. The trade deficit narrowed to $40.4 billion, the smallest since November 2003, as imports fell to the lowest level in three years. “The key message from this report is bad news,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “It is slim comfort that the U.S. cut its demand for imports more rapidly than the rest of the world cut its demand for U.S. exports. That might cushion the U.S. downturn a little, but it is not a route to recovery.” American exports and imports are both contracting as the global economy faces the first simultaneous recession in the U.S., Japan and the euro region in the postwar era. While plummeting demand helps trim the nation’s purchases of foreign goods, falling exports of U.S.-made products will hobble American factories and jobs. Trade has contributed to growth in the U.S., the world’s largest economy, since the first three months of 2007. Americans bought 12 percent fewer goods and services from abroad, reducing imports to $183.2 billion as demand for foreign crude oil, automobiles, computers and televisions sagged. Exports dropped 5.8 percent to $142.8 billion in November, today’s figures showed. Foreign purchases of automobiles were the lowest since October 2006. Decline in Trade “The real story is the contraction in important export volumes that underscores the decline in world trade,” John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics LLC in New York, wrote in a note to clients. “An economy cannot grow its way out of a recession by reducing imports, especially one the size of the U.S.” Slumping demand for American-made computers and semiconductors contributed to the drop in November exports. Intel Corp., the world’s largest chipmaker, said this month that fourth-quarter sales dropped 23 percent, more than it projected in November, as the global recession intensified. Intel Chief Executive Officer Paul Otellini, 58, has said he expects the current U.S. recession will be the worst of his lifetime. The Santa Clara, California-based company’s chips run about 80 percent of the world’s PCs, making it a bellwether for technology spending. On Jan 13, 4:26 pm, CincyBabe <[email protected]> wrote: > This is no doubt a fallout from the banking and credit mess, Xi. When > sales fall, and stores cannot get credit, they can't order new stock. > With the US reliance on Chinese goods, I'm sure that is a major > factor. > > On Jan 13, 9:16 am, "Xi Ling" <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > My comment: Foreign trade has two main indicators to measure. > > > One is size of trade. As a consequence of international collapse of trading > > that is close to 50% since July, export and import fell. Its consequence is > > an inmediate fall in the economic activity of that economy, in this case > > China´s economy. Everybody predicts that this rate will not rise in the near > > future as Europe and USA demand is declining and nobody can predict when it > > will rise again (if it does). That is why VP Xi and Premier Wen are urging > > all economic areas and all entrepreneurs to expand to new markets. > > > The second indicator is surplus (or deficit). As many predicted, this rate > > is flat. Imports fall as much as exports. Therefore, surplus does not fall > > yet. We cannot expect that it remains like that as soon as domestic demand > > starts to grow as much as promoted through the stimulous plan. Probably we > > will see early signs since March or April, and a clear turn of its trend > > since June-July. On the one hand it is possitive because it allows to sum > > reserves to be used later, sort of national savings. But on the other hand > > it means that domestic demand is not growing yet, or not enough. Obviously > > it is early and the first perception is possitive: government are investing > > more and more, and consumers have balanced their attitude toward a more > > balanced rate savings-consumption, the third leg, corporations, will join > > soon. We should pay attention to this chart around March-July, f we do not > > see signs of a more balanced import-export rate, or rather, if imports fall > > as much as exports, we will have a problem. > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > Xi > > >http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/13/content_10650248.htm > > > BEIJING, Jan. 13 -- China's exports fell two months in a row for the first > > time in a decade, reflecting the impact of the global financial crisis on > > the "workshop of the world". > > > According to Customs figures, to be released Tuesday, exports in December > > dropped 2.8 percent year-on-year, after falling 2.2 percent in November. > > > Imports in December dropped, too, to 21.3 percent year-on-year, after having > > fallen 17.9 per cent the previous month. > > > But since the drops took place in November and December only, the country > > will still see an impressive 17.2 percent rise in exports and 18.2 percent > > increase in imports for the whole of last year. The previous year's records > > were much more impressive, though, with exports and imports both recording a > > 20-plus percent growth. > > > Last month, the exports and imports volumes were 111.2 billion U.S. > > dollars and 72.2 billion dollars - and in November, they were 114.9 billion > > dollars and 74.9 billion dollars. > > > The falling trend in exports is likely to continue in the first two > > quarters of this year, some Beijing-based trade experts said yesterday. > > > Su Chang, macroeconomic analyst with China Economic Business Monitor, said > > foreign trade could decline further and would pick up when the U.S. economy > > showed signs of recovery. > > > The country is likely to see "almost zero growth" in exports in the first > > quarter of this year, and perhaps "a fall of 6 percent" in the second > > quarter, Su said. > > > The drop in exports has been attributed to falling demand in the European > > Union (EU) and the U.S., the country's top two trade partners. > > > Ma Jun, Deutsche Bank Greater China's chief economist, said that given the > > state of the EU economy, China's exports could grow only 6 percent this > > year. > > > The trade experts said the other threat to Chinese exports could come from > > Vietnam, India and Pakistan because they are offering lower prices for goods > > being made there. > > > The government has announced a 586-billion dollars package to boost > > domestic demand. But, Su said, it is too early for those measures to have > > taken effect. > > > xin_532010613104643728623.jpg > > 50KViewDownload --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
