On Wednesday, November 23, 2011, Tobias Bieniek wrote:
> The problem is simply that in some cases MC theory doesn't need to be
> applied anymore even though you are still below glide path... e.g.
> when expecting ridges or other lift sources other than circling along
> the way.

Yes exactly. MC theory can not consider this effects. 

In a previous message I have shown an alternative which is available now
and does not involve any guesswork and even works if just about all the
assumptions needed for a correct MC calculation (i.e. polar, wind,
bugs, ...) are incorrect.

> XCSoar provides many alternative concepts. It is not necessary to force
> something like the MC theory into providing results based on data
> which it can not correctly consider (e.g. things like ridge lift or
> airmass lift).
> 
> The infobox setup I use for final glide for instance contains "Fin L/D"
> which provides a pure geometric calculation to reach my final WP at
> the safety height. That alone would not be very helpful (e.g. because
> of wind, airmass movement). So I additionally use "L/D Avg" (providing
> the average L/D I achieved over a configurable timespan) and "L/D Cru"
> (which provides the L/D I achieved since leaving the last thermal). The
> latter two correctly show the effects of all factors which involve
> my glide performance (bugs, airmass movement wind, aircraft performance
> and my less then perfect flying.) Comparing the "Fin L/D" and the
> other two values is a perfect basis for decision making, i.e. to decide
> if I can fly faster and more aggressive.
> 
> I also use the arrival height estimation for decision making but certainly
> not alone.

Andreas

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