Cde Castro, Can one ensure that their predictions are accurate??
On 5/10/10, Castro Ngobese <[email protected]> wrote: > 'Do not look where you fell, but where you slipped' > *RANJENI MUNUSAMY: COMMENT* - Oct 25 2006 > > In his political report to the African National Congress's (ANC) national > executive committee (NEC) earlier this month, President Thabo Mbeki warned > that strategic proposals conveyed recently by the South African Communist > Party's (SACP) Blade Nzimande would result in the "destruction of the ANC > and the rest of the democratic movement". > > Considering the poisoned atmosphere, it is only natural that the president > would worry about the "destruction" of the ANC and the democratic movement. > > But how did we get here? > > A proverb of the Vai people of Liberia advises how to determine the source > of trouble: "Do not look where you fell, but where you slipped." > > In 1994, Mbeki, then ANC deputy president, authored an internal party > document titled *From Resistance to Reconstruction: Tasks of the ANC in the > New Epoch of the Democratic Transformation -- Unmandated Reflections*. > > Mbeki said "forces" would try to "destroy the ANC from within … [and] > create contradictions and conflict between the ANC and other formations in > the democratic movement". > > He warned that the objective of these forces would be "splitting the ANC > around the issue of leadership". Opposition forces would attempt to break > the tripartite alliance by encouraging the SACP to project itself publicly > as the "left conscience" and the Congress of South African Trade Unions > (Cosatu) would be encouraged to project the pursuit of political and > socio-economic objectives different from those the ANC had set itself as a > governing party, Mbeki wrote. > > "Change also demands that the ANC and the democratic movement as a whole > should be able to shed some of its 'members' regardless of how this might be > exploited by our opponents to discredit the movement." > > *Unmandated Reflections* remained like a dirty family secret in the > privileged possession of a few senior ANC leaders who feared its release > would cause outrage in the ranks of the alliance. Those who did read it at > the time were dumbfounded by the grave predictions. > > CONTINUES BELOW > > > Looking back now, it is almost eerie how the president was able to script > the future. Does our president have psychic powers or is it possible that > some in the ANC knew that the trajectory they were charting would result in > the schism we now find ourselves in? > > The course of events -- perhaps not all related -- over the next 11 years > provides the answer as to where we "slipped". > > In 1995 we saw the fall from grace of iconic ANC leaders Winnie > Madikizela-Mandela, Allan Boesak and Bantu Holomisa. The ANC fumbled in > response, as it continues to do today. > > The government's adoption of the growth, employment and redistribution > (Gear) macroeconomic policy in 1996 saw the rupture with organised labour > and the SACP. > > That year also saw ANC secretary general Cyril Ramaphosa, who was > outmanoeuvred for the position of Nelson Mandela's deputy in 1994, quitting > politics for business. > > In 1997, despite the skirmishes over Gear, Nzimande, at the time the SACP's > chairperson, said ahead of the ANC's 50th national conference that the party > did "not want the conference to degenerate into a war over Gear" and was > "approaching the meeting in a spirit of unity". > > A constitutional task team under the national conference preparatory > committee submitted the following constitutional amendment for adoption at > the Mafikeng congress: "The ANC president shall be the state president when > the ANC has the parliamentary majority. The provincial chairperson shall be > the provincial premier in cases where the ANC enjoys a majority in the > provincial legislature. The coincidence of the ANC presidency with the state > presidency and provincial chairmanship with premiership should be phased in > from April 1999." > > Despite the proposed amendment being viewed generally as harmless and being > canvassed in ANC structures, it was never formally put to the conference and > therefore not adopted. The reason was never explained. > > Mbeki and Jacob Zuma were elected ANC president and deputy president > respectively at the conference. > > Addressing Cosatu's central committee in 1998, Mbeki said: "We must not fall > victim to the easy temptation to label one another as this or that school of > thought, and thus close the dialogue among ourselves." > > But when he addressed the SACP congress later that year, the gloves came > off: "Most remarkably, the SACP believes that we of the ANC represent this > 'most serious threat'. Evidently, we having resorted to a call which > constitutes what your documents describe with self-assured and superior > sarcasm as a 'bureaucratic closing of ranks' in the face of an imagined > rather than a real counter-revolutionary threat … We must not allow the > situation such that we engage in fake revolutionary posturing so that our > mass base … accepts charlatans, who promise everything that is good, while > we all know that these confidence tricksters are telling the masses a lie." > > Also in that year, Tokyo Sexwale resigned as premier of Gauteng. > > In the run-up to the 1999 election, the ANC's failure to secure outright > majority in KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape provinces saw fervent > horse-trading for power-sharing agreements. The failure to strike a deal > with Inkatha Freedom Party president Mangosuthu Buthelezi over the > premiership of KwaZulu-Natal led to Zuma being appointed deputy president of > South Africa. > > The year 2000 was a nightmare for the ANC, having to navigate a minefield of > controversies over its ridiculous approach to the crisis in Zimbabwe, > international outrage over Mbeki's questioning of the causal link between > HIV and Aids and the allegations of irregularities in the arms deal. The > national general conference in Port Elizabeth that year, however, pioneered > a novel concept of the "new person", roughly described as a highly skilled, > disciplined intellectual -- the prototype of the new-age ANC cadre. The > old-guard "comrade" was put out to pasture. > > At an NEC meeting in October that year, Mbeki roasted Nzimande for saying at > the Cosatu congress that the scientific view that HIV causes Aids should be > accepted. This opened the floodgates for other members of the NEC to tear > into Nzimande -- as they did earlier this month. > > But it was in 2001 that all hell broke loose, beginning with a bang when an > explosive letter Madikizela-Mandela wrote to Zuma complaining about Mbeki > was leaked to the media. Media houses were awash with rumours from ANC > sources that there were two "camps" in the organisation - one around the > president and the other loosely associated with Zuma. The sources claimed > Mbeki and Zuma were barely on speaking terms. > > Then came the plot allegations. Former safety and security minister Steve > Tshwete was under extreme pressure to expose a police intelligence > investigation based on information from the eccentric Mpumalanga youth > league leader James Nkambule. On April 22 2001, I wrote the following as the > *Sunday Times* lead: "An official police investigation is under way into > claims that President Thabo Mbeki is in 'physical danger' from high-profile > leaders within the ANC who are plotting to oust him." > > I wrote further: "Tshwete, a close ally of Mbeki and one of the ANC's main > trouble-shooters, is heading up a [ANC] tribunal investigating, among other > things, allegations by Nkambule that the [former Mpumalanga premier > Matthews] Phosa faction has teamed up with Deputy President Jacob Zuma and > with senior business leaders against Mbeki." > > Two days later, Tshwete went on national television and named Ramaphosa, > Sexwale and Phosa as the alleged plotters. > > Although Zuma was not implicated, he later issued an intriguing statement > declaring he was not interested in the presidency. > > The *Mail & Guardian*'s editorial on April 26 2001 read as follows: "This is > low, low stuff. It is the stuff of the Soviet Union under Josef Stalin ... > It was proceeded by weeks during which we on this newspaper heard repeated > stories of leaks to the SABC intended to embarrass Deputy President Jacob > Zuma, emanating from individuals associated with the presidency." > > How easily we forget. > > Under a hail of condemnation from, among others, Cosatu and the SACP, and > after the investigation concluded that the allegations were hogwash, Tshwete > recanted. > > Meanwhile, the Aids controversy was escalating, with government trying to > fight off pressure to provide antiretroviral treatment to pregnant women. A > bizarre, rambling 114-page document entitled *Castro Hlongwane, Caravans, > Cats, Geese, Foot & Mouth and Statistics: HIV/Aids and the Struggle for the > Humanisation of the African* did the rounds. The document, which staunch > Mbeki defender the late Peter Mokaba claimed to have authored, declared that > antiretrovirals were poisonous and had killed, among others, former > presidential spokesperson Parks Mankahlana. > > In August 2001, frustration had built up in the trade union movement over > privatisation to the point that Cosatu called a two-day national strike of > more than four million workers - more than twice the federation's formal > membership. > > Another ANC document, *Through the Eye of the Needle*, warned of > "individuals who operate in the dead of the night, convening secret meetings > and speaking poorly of other members, should be exposed and isolated". > > Around that time, another oddball character, Bheki Jacobs, who claimed to be > Mbeki's personal intelligence adviser, went around media houses liberally > dispensing false information about the arms deal as well as various ANC > leaders. > > In March 2002, Mandela's attempt to raise his concern in the NEC about the > government's dithering on antiretroviral treatment was seen as an affront to > the ANC's leader. He was heckled as he spoke and was later ruthlessly > attacked in a treatise by the late NEC member Dumisani Makhaye -- best > described as an Mbeki fanatic. > > Makhaye's pen was equally poisoned when he responded to the SACP's Jeremy > Cronin's views about the over-centralisation or "Zanufication" of power in > the ANC, calling him a "white messiah" and a "factory fault". > > Addressing the ANC's policy conference in September 2002, Mbeki said: "Our > movement and its policies are also under sustained attack from domestic and > foreign left sectarian factions that claim to be the best representatives of > the workers and the poor of our country. … The issue of the offensive of > the ultra-left against our movement is also important because this > ultra-left works to implant itself within our ranks. > > "It strives to abuse our internal democratic processes to advance its agenda > … We are permanently interested in increasing the size and strength of our > movement. Nevertheless, I am convinced that we must also pay particular > attention to the principle -- better fewer, but better!" > > Two months later, a few weeks before Zuma was to be re-elected deputy > president at the ANC's 51st national conference in Stellenbosch, this > newspaper revealed that he was under investigation in connection with the > arms deal. > > Up to this point, there was no "Jacob Zuma crisis". The crossfire, tensions, > obfuscation and calamities had nothing to do with him. The events that > followed have been hammered into our consciousness - former National > Prosecuting Agency (NPA) boss Bulelani Ngcuka's "off-the-record" briefing > with editors, his "prima facie" statement, the spy allegations, the Hefer > commission, the Schabir Shaik trial, the "hoax e-mails", the firing and > charging of Zuma, and the two trials against him. > > All these resulted in the democratic forces lining up to condemn the use and > abuse of state institutions in power battles. But the ANC, as it careened > from one disturbing episode to another, remained silent, witnessing its > character and cultures being redefined. > > Now, debates and power struggles rage in the ANC and the alliance structures > in an atmosphere of suspicion, fear and treachery. Journalists, editors and > analysts have chalked this up to a "camp-war" between Mbeki and Zuma and > those loyal to them. These commentators have either a puerile understanding > of issues or short memories. They should seek to expand their knowledge > beyond the events of the past three years. > > Of course, recent incidents and the succession battle have inflamed > tensions, but the genesis clearly lies elsewhere. > > In fact, the course of events was accurately prophesied 12 years ago. If we > are falling, it is because we began slipping a long time ago. The question > is: Who pushed us? > > -- > You are subscribed. This footer can help you. > Please POST your comments to [email protected] or reply to > this message. > You can visit the group WEB SITE at > http://groups.google.com/group/yclsa-eom-forum for different delivery > options, pages, files and membership. > To UNSUBSCRIBE, please email [email protected] . > You don't have to put anything in the "Subject:" field. You don't have to > put anything in the message part. All you have to do is to send an e-mail to > this address (repeat): [email protected] . > -- Sibusiso Mimi 0760211216 "He who will not reflect is a ruined man" -- You are subscribed. This footer can help you. Please POST your comments to [email protected] or reply to this message. You can visit the group WEB SITE at http://groups.google.com/group/yclsa-eom-forum for different delivery options, pages, files and membership. To UNSUBSCRIBE, please email [email protected] . You don't have to put anything in the "Subject:" field. You don't have to put anything in the message part. All you have to do is to send an e-mail to this address (repeat): [email protected] .
