On 27 February 2010 16:49, Tony Wright <ton...@tpg.com.au> wrote:

>  And I suppose Warwick Hughes has it all right?
>
I don't know. I didn't really opine on Warwick Hughes. The only stuff I
posted about him was written by Phil Jones of CRU.

[ ... Rant about Warwick deleted ... ]

> So if you don’t believe any scientist can be credible, who do you believe
> in?
>
I did not say I don't believe any scientist can be credible.

What I DID say is that people who are dismissing the climategate stuff and
AR4 nonesense out of hand should stop - breathe - and read the material.
Draw your own conclusions on the basis of having read it.

It is clear from the angry e-mails I'm getting on this thread is that my
merely questioning the content of AR4 (esp WG2) as well as the motivations
of the people outed in the CRU e-mail leaks/hacks is enough to tick people
off in a major way.

Again, I'm merely suggesting you look at the material.

As for Warwick Hughes being a nutter or whatever - that may be the case but
it does not at all detract from the fact Phil Jones said he didn't want to
send him data because Hughes 'would just try and find something wrong with
it'.

That statement is utterly unscientific.

If the 'debate is over' and there is 'scientific consensus' from the 95% of
scientists as you suggest (i.e. the evidence must be irrefutable) then why
not just give him the source and data? If he does find something wrong with
it - that is the scientific method is supposed to work. If he makes a stink
to ask for it can comes up with nothing then he looks like a fool.

> Only the ones with a neo-conservative agenda? Only ones that agree with
> your point of view?
>
Groan. No. However I do think it is healthy and logical to question the
scientists who write stuff like the material in the CRU hack/leak. They
cannot, on one hand, say that "The debate is over" to anyone with an
opposing viewpoint, and at the same time write crap like this:

;
; Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!!
;
yrloc=[1400,findgen(19)*5.+1904]
valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,$
  2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75         ; fudge factor
if n_elements(yrloc) ne n_elements(valadj) then message,'Oooops!'
;
yearlyadj=interpol(valadj,yrloc,timey)

That is, the 5 in 100 scientists that don’t believe in climate change?
> Perhaps American Spectator, a newspaper considered right-wing in a country
> that we consider further to the right, funded by Richard Scaife, the
> principal air to the Mellon Banking, Oil and Aluminium fortune?
>
There was a time very recently when 100% of doctors and researchers thought
that stomach ulcers were caused by stress and lifestyle choices. It took a
lone 'idiot' to drink a vile of bacteria in front of a conference to prove
simple anti-biotics was an effective cure for a whole range of issues.

Just because most people believe something does not automatically make it
right. A modicum of healthy skepticism is not unwarranted especially given
the recent revelations.

>  Would you rather fly blind without the scientists to warn you of what
> might be coming up if we don’t be careful?
>
I'd rather people would engage their brains and look at information from a
variety of sources and keep a balanced view of what is going on - and
especially stop using labels like 'denialist' and phrases like 'the debate
is over' (there never really was one).

The fact of the matter is that some of the stuff in AR4 was SO embarrassing
that it would result in staff being sacked in any normal organisation.
Anyone who says that the stuff in the CRU archives is 'quoted out of
context' has not read any of the material. When you add context back in -
some of it gets far worse.

What did Pachauri say about people who questioned the IPCC AR4 glacier
figures? He said that they believed in "voodoo science". It turns out - that
were correct.

David.

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