Interesting analysis, Don.
Human players sometimes adhere to a simple policy: "rich men don't pick fights."
When one is objectively far ahead, one picks up the easy profits, and otherwise
takes no risks. If moves A, B, and C are comparable risk-wise, one would prefer
the more profitable of the lot.
On the other hand, when one is far behind, one takes risks.
Such a strategy appears to maximize wins, especially when one is uncertain
about the status.
Can that strategy be effectively translated to MC terms?
To approach the problem from another angle, strong amateur and professional
players have a consensus that some moves return maximal value, others are
unsatisfying, and still others are risky. They seem to have a high level of
agreement about the value of low-risk moves; disputes arise for high-risk plays
where the outcome is less certain.
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