Actually your summary of what people do sounds exactly like what MC
programs do, except for one point...
MC programs don't differentiate moves by point value. They only look
at winning rate. It's extremely tough to differentiate the one move
sequence with 99.1% win rate when all other moves have a 99% win rate.
Without any other heuristics or local search to guide MC programs,
their play seems reckless...
Sent from my iPhone
On Sep 8, 2008, at 5:45 PM, terry mcintyre <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
Interesting analysis, Don.
Human players sometimes adhere to a simple policy: "rich men don't
pick fights."
When one is objectively far ahead, one picks up the easy profits,
and otherwise takes no risks. If moves A, B, and C are comparable
risk-wise, one would prefer the more profitable of the lot.
On the other hand, when one is far behind, one takes risks.
Such a strategy appears to maximize wins, especially when one is
uncertain about the status.
Can that strategy be effectively translated to MC terms?
To approach the problem from another angle, strong amateur and
professional players have a consensus that some moves return maximal
value, others are unsatisfying, and still others are risky. They
seem to have a high level of agreement about the value of low-risk
moves; disputes arise for high-risk plays where the outcome is less
certain.
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