I'm not following the public debate/discussion on this, but I think we
discussed this here a few months ago?
Even though I lived and worked in the belly of the (Nuclear Weapons
Complex) beast for decades, I admit to not knowing with any degree of
certainty how direct the "Launch Codes" and mechanisms in the various
command centers (white house situation, Cheyenne Mtn, ???) or via the
"Nuclear Football" are connected to the actual launching mechanisms.
I understand that the Nuclear Football is carried by an aide-de-camp
(who is this for Trump, someone different every day/week?) and can
imagine that person wrestling it away from him when he is in a fit of
pique, as might the Sec'y of Defense or one of the Joint Chiefs
body-check him as he reaches for the "FIRE!" button (is there actually a
lock-out switch or something involved?). According to Wikipedia, the
President's identity must be verified (the purpose of the launch code?)
which the Sec'y of Defense is burdened with authenticating? In
principle, he does not have veto power, but in practice I like to
visualize "Mad Dog" Madis decking "The Donald" when he tries to launch
agains NK (or anyone), then politely reaching out to help him up off the
floor and asking him "are you OK? are you having a siezure?" and then
decking him again, eventually getting some help to haul him off to a
hospital bed (with restraints) in a padded room in a coma.
I also understand that every "launch site" implements a two-man rule for
the actual mechanism for arming/launching which I believe means that at
each launch site we have two more people with "practical" (if not legal)
veto power. Meanwhile a (small) host of maintenance and operational
staff in the subs/silos/bombers have some practical opportunity to at
least disable (or fail to enable) the warheads or launch capabiities as
well.
With that model, I would say there are a "few" fuses in the circuit that
*might* prevent an other-than-sane President from actually effectively
launching any missiles. I'm waiting for the "Presidential Order" to
come down directing that the launch mechanisms be connected directly to
a twitter feed so that he can launch with nothing more than a clever
hashtag "#nukemYooge @NK" or somesuch?!
With the various leaky leaks and the leaking leakers who leak them afoot
in spite of the AG's "don't do it!" admonition afoot, I would not be
surprised if there aren't many Silo/Sub/Bomber operations people
discussing among themselves in 2's and 3's or entire teams "what we do
if he pulls the trigger??!!!"
I think I'm more worried for Japan than SK or US protectorates or the US
west coast... seems like an easier target might be Japan (Okinawa is
fat, but there are several other US Military targets as well).
If Putin was the friend Trump seems to want him to be, HE would take
care of any retaliation for us I would think? Let one bully's
bully-friend smack down the little bully-wanna-be for the first bully?
Trump is a whackadoodle loose cannon, but Putin is more of a Junkyard
Dog, probably more intimidating to Kim Jong-Un than the Donald is? But
then that probably wouldn't play well with the third nuclear Super Power.
It probably doesn't matter which side of the equator you live in in
Ecuador, but "back in the day" nuclear winter (and less outrageous
alternatives) models were more gentle in the southern Hemisphere.
I hate to realize that I am even spending cycles thinking about this!?!
- Steve
On 8/9/17 5:05 PM, Gary Schiltz wrote:
It's bad enough that he's "out of his friggin' mind", but a CNN piece
today asks, "Could Congress stop Trump from bombing North Korea?" The
reporter's conclusion is basically that no, it couldn't. I think we
all should scared witless that Trump may well pull the trigger. My
only hope is that enough high-level generals would risk court martial
and refuse to follow his orders. If the USA did launch a pre-emptive
nuclear strike, the consequences for S Korea (and Japan?) would be
horrific. And then there is the question of what China and Russia
would do in response. This is really, really serious crap.
On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 5:05 PM, Nick Thompson
<nickthomp...@earthlink.net <mailto:nickthomp...@earthlink.net>> wrote:
Jochen,
He’s out of his friggin mind. There are those who feel that the
risk arising from the stultification of our political system was
so bad that it justified taking this sort of existential risk
(Hey, Dave!), but I am not one of them. Small interesting things
ARE starting to happen, (meetings amongst scared non-crazy people
in congress) and I am grateful for those, but whether they will
develop in time to rescue us, is by no means certain.
People keep offering me as comfort the fact that the South Koreans
aren’t worried …. 30 million people on the edge of obliteration
from conventional shells full of sarin. Why does that not comfort
me?
No, we are back to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Nick
Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
Clark University
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
<http://home.earthlink.net/%7Enickthompson/naturaldesigns/>
*From:*Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com
<mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>] *On Behalf Of *Jochen Fromm
*Sent:* Wednesday, August 09, 2017 3:34 PM
*To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
<friam@redfish.com <mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
*Subject:* [FRIAM] The apocalypse
What's the matter with your president? I am worried we are heading
to the apocalypse. The "fire and fury" threat feels like the Cuban
missile crisis or worse.
http://blog.cas-group.net/2017/08/the-apocalypse/
<http://blog.cas-group.net/2017/08/the-apocalypse/>
And then there is the issue of global warming which the Trump
administration ignores now. This is not just one apocalypse, it is
two.
-J.
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