******************** POSTING RULES & NOTES ******************** #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. *****************************************************************
> There are no “jihadists linked to al-Qaida” in Idlib, as anyone free of > post-9/11 “war on > terror” ideology is well aware[.] I have nothing to say to anyone who says “there are no jihadists linked to” Al-Qaeda. Would you be more comfortable with the term Islamist or Salafist? As for the idea that jihadists are in Al-Qaeda or Al-Nusra (“HTS”) prisons for being jihadists, it is utterly surreal. Next thing you’ll be telling us that the Salafists are really misunderstood social democrats. Sent from my iPhone > On Sep 14, 2018, at 1:15 AM, mkaradjis <mkarad...@gmail.com> wrote: > > “This BBC article claims that the numbers of just Uighars numbers > between 7,000 and 10,000 depending on the source. Of other ethnic > fighters they say a “high concentration.” > https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-45401474”. > > That article, dated September 2018, also made the claim that > “thousands have taken up arms against the government, including > jihadists linked to al-Qaeda.” To have some credibility, media such as > the BBC should at least keep up to date. There are no “jihadists > linked to al-Qaida” in Idlib, as anyone free of post-9/11 “war on > terror” ideology is well aware, unless they mean the handful of > pro-Qaida, ex-Nusra folk in Hurras al-Din, many of whom are in HTS > prisons. > > Anyway, the article quotes Assadist MP Fares Shehabi that there are > 10,000 Uighars in Idlib. Not sure if you consider a regime hack a > credible source, but based on his assertion that there are 100,000 > “al-Qaida-linked” militants, my tendency would be to divide anything > he says by about 100. > > As for the “war on terror” style AFP article: > > “This AFP article gives the number of just Uighar fighters (as opposed > to them and their “families”) between 1 and several thousand. It also > mentions high concentrations of Chechens. > https://www.afp.com/en/news/23/foreign-fighters-syrias-idlib-face-last-stand-doc-18x6wz1”. > > The BBC article said “several thousand” including their families. So > about 1000 fighters is probably about right. It also corresponds > better to what we hear on the ground. There are not exactly daily > reports of huge numbers of Uighar fighters, though here and there > there is reference to the TIP. Certainly nothing in the order of > either HTS or its opponents. > > Most estimates put HTS strength at about 10,000 fighters (that is also > the number given in the BBC article by UN's special envoy for Syria, > Staffan de Mistura, who erroneously claimed they were “associated with > al-Qaeda.” > > However, referring to these numbers, Ahmad Abazeid, a Turkey-based > Syrian analyst, “says that figure is an exaggeration and the fighters > number only a few thousand.” > https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/looming-battle-idlib-180908142026400.html > > I’m not sure who is correct, but one thing for sure is that Nusra > numbers were never estimated as any higher than 10,000, though given > that HTS is a coalition of Nusra (now JFS) with 5 very small groups > (not all jihadist), Lister’s 12,000 figure may be correct, but again I > would urge caution given Abazeid’s analysis. > > Overwhelmingly, these are Syrians, because when Nusra (now the core of > HTS) and ISIS split in 2013, there was a very heavy divide between > foreign fighters (overwhelmingly went with ISIS) and local fighters > (overwhelmingly with Nusra); after all, Nusra resulted from a > “Syrianisation” of this otherwise foreign invader force from Iraq. > However, there are a small number of foreign fighters with HTS, mostly > Arabs. > > Nearly all other armed groups in Greater Idlib (ie, Idlib, southern > and western Aleppo province, northern Hama and Latakia) are part of > the National Front for Liberation (NFL) coalition, which includes the > Free Idlib Army, which is itself a coalition of the major FSA groups > in Idlib, and the Victory Army (Jaysh al-Nasr), another FSA coalition > based in northern Hama. The NFL also includes Islamist groups like > Ahrar al-Sham and many others. > > According to Abazeid, “NFL is the biggest force [in Idlib] in terms of > numbers and geographical presence and weaponry.” Most sources suggest > it has some 30,000 fighters (some estimates are as high as 70,000). > According to the article quoting Abazeid, he “also cast doubt on those > estimates.” But the quote from him “casting doubt” is merely “But NFL > is a local formation, not an organised army, and therefore it's > difficult to estimate its numbers.” > > That is very true: it is local; it is somewhat decentralised precisely > because it is based directly in the communities and villages (as are > most HTS cadre); it is an entirely indigenous fighting force. > > And here’s the thing: the most entirely local, indigenous, Syrian > fighting forces are the FSA, and the mainstream Islamist groups. > Regardless of how one assesses the varying politics, they are > literally the sons of the soil. > > Overwhelmingly, this is also true of the YPG, among Kurdish Syrians. > But just as HTS has a component of foreign fighters, so does the YPG. > It is well-known that even at a leadership level, some of the PYD are > actually PKK (ie, from Turkey). And everywhere that they either > liberated or conquered in Syria was blessed with a gigantic > cult-of-personality style portrait of Ocalan, a Turkish citizen. > > Now, we are not obsessed with borders, and the Kurds can well claim > that Kurds from Turkey and elsewhere are part of their Kurdish nation. > Yeh, I have no problem with that, because I’m not the one obsessed > with “foreigners.” The Arabs claim the same about the Arab nation, > after all. > > The overwhelming majority of foreign fighters fall into three categories: > > 1. The 63,000 Russian fighters who have fought in Syria > (https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-over-63-000-troops-fought-syria-141424820.html)while > their government bombs Syria, Vietnam-style, from the skies. > > 2. The global Shiite jihadists, from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, > Pakistan and Lebanon, who account for some tens of thousands of troops > fighting for the Assad regime. > > 3. Sunni jihdists, overwhelmingly in ISIS, itself an Iraqi-origin > organisation. As we are speaking of Idlib, ISIS was expelled root and > branch from the whole of Idlib and the whole of western Syria by the > rebels in early 2014. > > Therefore, in terms of local v foreign composition/control, we can classify: > > 1. Completely local: FSA, anti-Assad Islamists > > 2. Mostly local, with some foreign fighters and/or traditional > connections to outside-of-Syria organisations: Nusra/HTS, PYD/YPG > > 3. Heavily dominated/controlled by foreign states/agendas: Syrian > regime, ISIS > > “So I think “thousands” was a reasonable number.” Yeh, could be, or > perhaps 1000. Out of many 10s of 1000s. > >> On Fri, Sep 14, 2018 at 1:35 PM Matthew Harvey <mattharv...@gmail.com> wrote: >> >> This BBC article claims that the numbers of just Uighars numbers between >> 7,000 and 10,000 depending on the source. Of other ethnic fighters they say >> a “high concentration.” >> >> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-45401474 >> >> This AFP article gives the number of of just Uighar fighters (as opposed to >> them and their “families”) between 1 and several thousand. It also mentions >> high concentrations of Chechens. >> >> https://www.afp.com/en/news/23/foreign-fighters-syrias-idlib-face-last-stand-doc-18x6wz1 >> >> So I think “thousands” was a reasonable number. Now can you answer my >> question please? >> >> Sent from my iPhone >> >> On Sep 13, 2018, at 10:00 PM, mkaradjis <mkarad...@gmail.com> wrote: >> >> "thousands of foreign jihadists holed up in Idlib" >> Matt, do you mind providing sources for this piece of (mis)information? >> On Fri, Sep 14, 2018 at 4:41 AM Matt Harvey via Marxism >> <marxism@lists.csbs.utah.edu> wrote: >> >> >> ******************** POSTING RULES & NOTES ******************** >> >> #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. >> >> #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. >> >> #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. >> >> ***************************************************************** >> >> >> "The YPG is a mercenary offering its services to the highest >> >> bidder." >> >> >> I'm agnostic verging on doubtful on the question of whether the Kurds >> >> represent a truly revolutionary force. (The Scoop Jackson's Society's >> >> trashing them is a vote in their favor though.) >> >> >> But referring to any indigenous Syrian force as mercenaries when their are >> >> thousands of foreign jihadists holed up in Idlib is either active hypocrisy >> >> or political projection. In your framework are they like the >> >> Internationalists who fought in Spain? I'm truly curious as to what armed >> >> faction you think does represent the "revolutionary masses in Syria" and >> >> who backs them. >> >> _________________________________________________________ >> >> Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm >> >> Set your options at: >> http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/mkaradjis%40gmail.com _________________________________________________________ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
