Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
- Original Nachricht Von: OrionWorks - Steven Vincent Johnson orionwo...@charter.net An: Vortex vortex-l@eskimo.com Datum: 19.10.2011 03:50 Betreff: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors? I believe it has been conjectured that Rossi has not yet operated his 1 MW demo prototype at 100% capacity. That's what I have assumed is the case based on what others have said... or is that what Rossi has stated for the record? I'm not sure on this point. Someone please correct me if I am in error. The point being: If Rossi's entire 1 MW array has never been activated, then yes indeed there does appear in my mind to be valid concerns for the safety of curious bystanders who may wander too close to the prototype. If it's NOT true, and the 1MW reactor HAS already been test driven at least a few times (and nothing of an explosive nature transpired), then IMO there may be some grounds to give Rossi a teeny tiny little bit of slack. Nevertheless, this all being a scarcely understood technology, it is still prudent to classify the prototype as potentially dangerous, until proven otherwise. I would still personally keep my distance. Lately, I can't help but wonder if Rossi hasn't already tested the entire array at 100% capacity behind closed doors, precisely to make sure his 1 MW prototype will work as he hope it will on Oct 28. If I were betting the entire farm (which Rossi seems to be doing) on making sure my demo performs as advertised I would make damn sure that I have already performed several rehearsals. Rehearsals dry runs would be absolutely critical in order to impress prospective investors in forking over obscene amounts of venture capital, I certainly hope Rossi has already rehearsed the whole demo at 100% capacity. Can anyone verify or falsify this conjecture of mine? Something like this cannot been tested behind closed doors. There must be incredible amounts of steam over Rossis facility in Bologna if he tested it and this was not reported. Also there must be an output pipe, large enough and the pipe that was shown in previous videos was many orders of magnitude too thin. Unfortunately the Focus people and others concentrated to make impressive images and music but did not watch out for the well known questions and technical details and did not ask Rossi about this. So they where not well informed, before they have seen this. I think the press is not interested to report this seriously. As longer as this story goes on the more money they make from it. Probably they know already what finally comes out. The 1 MW plant cannot work in my opinion. Best, Peter
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
I think the 1 MW demo is kind of perpetuum stabile second class; cannot work being a too complex combination of unreliable non-controllable components. I wonder that no one has organized bets re its success/failure Peter (I had been Peter much more time than collega Heckert) On Wed, Oct 19, 2011 at 10:32 AM, peter.heck...@arcor.de wrote: - Original Nachricht Von: OrionWorks - Steven Vincent Johnson orionwo...@charter.net An: Vortex vortex-l@eskimo.com Datum: 19.10.2011 03:50 Betreff: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors? I believe it has been conjectured that Rossi has not yet operated his 1 MW demo prototype at 100% capacity. That's what I have assumed is the case based on what others have said... or is that what Rossi has stated for the record? I'm not sure on this point. Someone please correct me if I am in error. The point being: If Rossi's entire 1 MW array has never been activated, then yes indeed there does appear in my mind to be valid concerns for the safety of curious bystanders who may wander too close to the prototype. If it's NOT true, and the 1MW reactor HAS already been test driven at least a few times (and nothing of an explosive nature transpired), then IMO there may be some grounds to give Rossi a teeny tiny little bit of slack. Nevertheless, this all being a scarcely understood technology, it is still prudent to classify the prototype as potentially dangerous, until proven otherwise. I would still personally keep my distance. Lately, I can't help but wonder if Rossi hasn't already tested the entire array at 100% capacity behind closed doors, precisely to make sure his 1 MW prototype will work as he hope it will on Oct 28. If I were betting the entire farm (which Rossi seems to be doing) on making sure my demo performs as advertised I would make damn sure that I have already performed several rehearsals. Rehearsals dry runs would be absolutely critical in order to impress prospective investors in forking over obscene amounts of venture capital, I certainly hope Rossi has already rehearsed the whole demo at 100% capacity. Can anyone verify or falsify this conjecture of mine? Something like this cannot been tested behind closed doors. There must be incredible amounts of steam over Rossis facility in Bologna if he tested it and this was not reported. Also there must be an output pipe, large enough and the pipe that was shown in previous videos was many orders of magnitude too thin. Unfortunately the Focus people and others concentrated to make impressive images and music but did not watch out for the well known questions and technical details and did not ask Rossi about this. So they where not well informed, before they have seen this. I think the press is not interested to report this seriously. As longer as this story goes on the more money they make from it. Probably they know already what finally comes out. The 1 MW plant cannot work in my opinion. Best, Peter -- Dr. Peter Gluck Cluj, Romania http://egooutpeters.blogspot.com
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
On Wed, Oct 19, 2011 at 3:52 AM, Peter Gluck peter.gl...@gmail.com wrote: I wonder that no one has organized bets re its success/failure Good point. I weighed in at 800 kW and Jones says 250. I suppose we need to set an average or peak claim on these numbers. I was thinking in terms of a peak. If Jones was speaking of an average, we could both be right. T
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
However at this size, duration, continuity are essential, the demo is organized Friday and perhaps all the special people present want to enjoy the weekend so the demo will be stopped Friday night. (i.e. aborted) A minimal techno-decency means that this demo if it works, should continue for a few days at least 3-6 or more. in my experience, night shifts are the best for organizing important experiments, not so much disturbance and noise...Night is a good counsellor.Except for people who do not need counsellors. On Wed, Oct 19, 2011 at 3:40 PM, Terry Blanton hohlr...@gmail.com wrote: On Wed, Oct 19, 2011 at 3:52 AM, Peter Gluck peter.gl...@gmail.com wrote: I wonder that no one has organized bets re its success/failure Good point. I weighed in at 800 kW and Jones says 250. I suppose we need to set an average or peak claim on these numbers. I was thinking in terms of a peak. If Jones was speaking of an average, we could both be right. T -- Dr. Peter Gluck Cluj, Romania http://egooutpeters.blogspot.com
Re: Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
- Original Nachricht Von: Terry Blanton hohlr...@gmail.com An: vortex-l@eskimo.com Datum: 19.10.2011 14:40 Betreff: Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors? On Wed, Oct 19, 2011 at 3:52 AM, Peter Gluck peter.gl...@gmail.com wrote: I wonder that no one has organized bets re its success/failure Good point. I weighed in at 800 kW and Jones says 250. I suppose we need to set an average or peak claim on these numbers. Somebody has calculated, at 1MW the steam must go supersonic with this output tube. Then, with 100 kW it must still go some 100 km/h. I was thinking in terms of a peak. If Jones was speaking of an average, we could both be right. T
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
On Oct 19, 2011, at 5:39 AM, peter.heck...@arcor.de wrote: [snip] Somebody has calculated, at 1MW the steam must go supersonic with this output tube. Then, with 100 kW it must still go some 100 km/h. [snip] I got 803 km/hr, which is less than the speed of sound. You may want to check my calculations! Using the photos here: http://www.nyteknik.se/nyheter/energi_miljo/energi/article3264361.ece The outside width of a standard container is 8 feet, or 2.44 meters From the full photo of the back side: The 8 feet = 129 pixels. The red handle = 16 pixels = (16 px)*(2.44 m)/(129 px) = 30 cm, much larger than I would have thought. In the closeup photo the handle is 94 px, giving (30 cm)/(94 px) = 0.319 cm/px. The cap is 40 px, or 12.8 cm OD. The exit pipe appears to have a 22 px OD, or 7 cm OD. Maybe the pipe is 6.5 cm ID, or 3.25 cm radius, giving an area pi*(3.25 cm)^2 = 33 cm^2. The energy put into the steam depends on the temperature to which it is condensed before being fed back into the E-cat. Assume the condensed water is being fed back at 100°C. The energy to vaporize water at 100°C is 2260 J/g. If 1 MW is heating 100°C water then I estimate the flow has to be 442.5 gm/s, with a volumetric flow of 737.5 liters/sec. This gives a flow velocity of (737500 cm^3/s)/(33 cm^3)= 223 m/s in the pipe, or 803 km/ hr. This is below the speed of sound but over 6 times the recommended speed for the pipe size. If I did the calculations right, then this indicates the device could blow up. If there are emergency steam relief valves on the devices the steam could be released inside the container. Note, if water is fed back at 50°C I get only 675 liter/sec steam flow. Related assessments can be found here: http://www.mail-archive.com/vortex-l@eskimo.com/msg51512.html Best regards, Horace Heffner http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
On Tue, 2011-10-18 at 23:01 -0400, Jed Rothwell wrote: David Roberson dlrober...@aol.com wrote: I asked Mr. Rossi whether or not he has tested several ECATS together in a moderate sized configuration to determine how well they function as a team. He responded yes to my query. He further stated that he plans to activate them in groups of 6 as he powers up the entire system. Well, that is a relief. I am glad he said that. I hope it is true. It is inconceivable to me that anyone would test a device as complex as the 1mw reactor, cold, in front of an audience. Jed, I know from your posts that you are an astute historian. Even the Wright Brothers had everything in place before their public demonstration. Wikipedia reads, Wilbur won a coin toss and made a three-second flight attempt on December 14, 1903, stalling after takeoff and causing minor damage to the Flyer. (Because December 13, 1903, was a Sunday, the brothers did not make any attempts that day, even though the weather was good.) In a message to their family, Wilbur referred to the trial as having only partial success, stating the power is ample, and but for a trifling error due to lack of experience with this machine and this method of starting, the machine would undoubtedly have flown beautifully.[52] Following repairs, the Wrights finally took to the air on December 17, 1903, making two flights each from level ground into a freezing headwind gusting to 27 miles per hour (43 km/h). Craig
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
Am 19.10.2011 16:19, schrieb Horace Heffner: On Oct 19, 2011, at 5:39 AM, peter.heck...@arcor.de wrote: [snip] Somebody has calculated, at 1MW the steam must go supersonic with this output tube. Then, with 100 kW it must still go some 100 km/h. [snip] I got 803 km/hr, which is less than the speed of sound. You may want to check my calculations! Energy of 99.6° Steam = 2675 kJ/kg I took this from an industrial steam table and this assumes 0° water temperature. So lets assume this as best case assumption in favor for Rossi. Mass flow of steam at 1000 kJ/s = 1000 kJ/s / (2675 kJ/kg) = 0.3738 kg/s. Steam volume at 100° is obtained if the equivalent water volume is multiplied by 1700. Steam volume is: 0.3738 l/s * 1700 = 635.5 l/s = 635500 cm^3 /s . Steam Flow is: 635500 cm^3/s / (33cm^2) = 19258 cm/s = 192.5 m/s = 693.3 km/h And yes, this is less than speed of sound. Of course this calculation can only show the order of magnitude, because this speed is impossible at air pressure. But still I think this speed is too much. He can do something about this, if he finally uses glycol and higher temperatures or adds some tube. But there still is the problem that all these hot FAT Cats would heat the container (and the reactor cores) above 100°. Now he is a genial inventor and I am sure he knows about these obvious problems and will be prepared. So let's wait, maybe he has other surprises. Using the photos here: http://www.nyteknik.se/nyheter/energi_miljo/energi/article3264361.ece The outside width of a standard container is 8 feet, or 2.44 meters From the full photo of the back side: The 8 feet = 129 pixels. The red handle = 16 pixels = (16 px)*(2.44 m)/(129 px) = 30 cm, much larger than I would have thought. In the closeup photo the handle is 94 px, giving (30 cm)/(94 px) = 0.319 cm/px. The cap is 40 px, or 12.8 cm OD. The exit pipe appears to have a 22 px OD, or 7 cm OD. Maybe the pipe is 6.5 cm ID, or 3.25 cm radius, giving an area pi*(3.25 cm)^2 = 33 cm^2. The energy put into the steam depends on the temperature to which it is condensed before being fed back into the E-cat. Assume the condensed water is being fed back at 100°C. The energy to vaporize water at 100°C is 2260 J/g. If 1 MW is heating 100°C water then I estimate the flow has to be 442.5 gm/s, with a volumetric flow of 737.5 liters/sec. This gives a flow velocity of (737500 cm^3/s)/(33 cm^3)= 223 m/s in the pipe, or 803 km/hr. This is below the speed of sound but over 6 times the recommended speed for the pipe size. If I did the calculations right, then this indicates the device could blow up. If there are emergency steam relief valves on the devices the steam could be released inside the container. Note, if water is fed back at 50°C I get only 675 liter/sec steam flow. Related assessments can be found here: http://www.mail-archive.com/vortex-l@eskimo.com/msg51512.html Best regards, Horace Heffner http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
[Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
I believe it has been conjectured that Rossi has not yet operated his 1 MW demo prototype at 100% capacity. That's what I have assumed is the case based on what others have said... or is that what Rossi has stated for the record? I'm not sure on this point. Someone please correct me if I am in error. The point being: If Rossi's entire 1 MW array has never been activated, then yes indeed there does appear in my mind to be valid concerns for the safety of curious bystanders who may wander too close to the prototype. If it's NOT true, and the 1MW reactor HAS already been test driven at least a few times (and nothing of an explosive nature transpired), then IMO there may be some grounds to give Rossi a teeny tiny little bit of slack. Nevertheless, this all being a scarcely understood technology, it is still prudent to classify the prototype as potentially dangerous, until proven otherwise. I would still personally keep my distance. Lately, I can't help but wonder if Rossi hasn't already tested the entire array at 100% capacity behind closed doors, precisely to make sure his 1 MW prototype will work as he hope it will on Oct 28. If I were betting the entire farm (which Rossi seems to be doing) on making sure my demo performs as advertised I would make damn sure that I have already performed several rehearsals. Rehearsals dry runs would be absolutely critical in order to impress prospective investors in forking over obscene amounts of venture capital, I certainly hope Rossi has already rehearsed the whole demo at 100% capacity. Can anyone verify or falsify this conjecture of mine? Steven Vincent Johnson www.OrionWorks.com www.zazzle.com/orionworks
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
On Tue, Oct 18, 2011 at 9:50 PM, OrionWorks - Steven Vincent Johnson orionwo...@charter.net wrote: I certainly hope Rossi has already rehearsed the whole demo at 100% capacity. Take it from an engineer. He tested it as soon as it was assembled. He might not have run it at capacity; but, it's been tested. Look at the corrosion on the module tested on Oct. 6. All that did not occur on that day. We don't build stuff to look at. :-) T
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
OrionWorks - Steven Vincent Johnson orionwo...@charter.net wrote: I believe it has been conjectured that Rossi has not yet operated his 1 MW demo prototype at 100% capacity. That's what I have assumed is the case based on what others have said... or is that what Rossi has stated for the record? Yes, he said this in his blog, I believe. And also in private communication. He said something to the effect that if does not work the first time, they will keep trying until it does, where the first time was on the 28th. The point being: If Rossi's entire 1 MW array has never been activated, then yes indeed there does appear in my mind to be valid concerns for the safety of curious bystanders who may wander too close to the prototype. I think it is profoundly dangerous even to people a good distance away. I was not exaggerating when I said this reactor should only be turned on someplace like the White Sands Missile Range. This much steam or hot water is acutely dangerous no matter how you generate it, even with a conventional combustion boiler. Not only is the heat dangerous, but based on Celani's radiation detector results in the January test, there may be danger from radiation. If it's NOT true, and the 1MW reactor HAS already been test driven at least a few times (and nothing of an explosive nature transpired), then IMO there may be some grounds to give Rossi a teeny tiny little bit of slack. As far as I know, and others I have spoken with know, it has never been test driven. I do not know anyone who has seen him operate 1 reactor at full power, or 2 reactors at the same time, multiplexed. He might have done this but no one has seen it. There are also legal issues. I asked him whether he has a license to operate this reactor. He did not respond. I think it is highly unlikely that any sane government official would grant a license for a megawatt nuclear reactor to be operated in close proximity to housing, children and so on. Even if this test works perfectly, Rossi could be arrested and he could spend the rest of his life fighting criminal charges of reckless endangerment. I told him that. He did not respond. On many levels this is a profoundly reckless and stupid thing to do. Not only that, but it has absolutely no scientific or technological significance. It has no commercial or business significance. A number of investors and people from top universities and other institutions have contacted me in recent months about this. They have ALL -- without exception -- said they see no reason to turn on such a large reactor. All of them would be satisfied with a 10 kW reactor. Building this reactor was a complete waste of time and resources. Again, I told him that. He response was to accuse me of sabotaging his work, and to blame me for his decision to make the Oct. 28 test private. I told him he should make me the scapegoat for his mistakes. Having said all of that . . . I would be more disturbed by this if I thought there is a good chance it will work, and produce a lot of power. I doubt that it will. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
Correction, obviously: I told him he should NOT make me the scapegoat for his mistakes. You can see why he is presently upset with me. Unfortunately, making him upset does not sway him or cause him to reconsider. His life history is full of disastrous mistakes that he made after his friends warning him of danger. That is not uncommon among geniuses who discover very important things. Yes, I told him that, too. There is nothing I have not said. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
On Tue, Oct 18, 2011 at 10:11 PM, Terry Blanton hohlr...@gmail.com wrote: On Tue, Oct 18, 2011 at 9:50 PM, OrionWorks - Steven Vincent Johnson orionwo...@charter.net wrote: I certainly hope Rossi has already rehearsed the whole demo at 100% capacity. Take it from an engineer. He tested it as soon as it was assembled. He might not have run it at capacity; but, it's been tested. Look at the corrosion on the module tested on Oct. 6. All that did not occur on that day. We don't build stuff to look at. :-) It will work on 10/28. I predict, based on numbers bashed around here, it will run at 800 kW. It looks like he has check valves on each module preventing blow back on non working modules. I hope he also has safety valves. T
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
Terry Blanton hohlr...@gmail.com wrote: Take it from an engineer. He tested it as soon as it was assembled. It was not even fully assembled on Oct. 6, as far as I know. He might not have run it at capacity; but, it's been tested. I hope you are right, but that is not what he said. Look at the corrosion on the module tested on Oct. 6. All that did not occur on that day. That unit has been tested, yes. It could be that he is exaggerating his bold plans, like a daredevil Evel Kneivel, and he is actually more prepared than he lets on. I hope so. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
I asked Mr. Rossi whether or not he has tested several ECATS together in a moderate sized configuration to determine how well they function as a team. He responded yes to my query. He further stated that he plans to activate them in groups of 6 as he powers up the entire system. Also, there are two smaller 500 kilowatts components to make up a full 1 Megawatt unit. The questions and responses are in his journal. http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=510cpage=22#comment-99445 and http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=510cpage=22#comment-99390. Dave -Original Message- From: Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com Sent: Tue, Oct 18, 2011 10:21 pm Terry Blanton hohlr...@gmail.com wrote: Take it from an engineer. He tested it as soon as it was assembled. It was not even fully assembled on Oct. 6, as far as I know. He might not have run it at capacity; but, it's been tested. I hope you are right, but that is not what he said. Look at the corrosion on the module tested on Oct. 6. All that did not occur on that day. That unit has been tested, yes. It could be that he is exaggerating his bold plans, like a daredevil Evel Kneivel, and he is actually more prepared than he lets on. I hope so. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
I agree with Terry. Rossi is not a build it and take pictures kind of guy. He is surely testing multiple units at once. You don't build an array of something that complex unless you're pretty sure about the individual units. And as soon as practical, you start running multiple units at once... that way you can catch engineering flaws before they are replicated. So the fact that he has a nearly completed array makes me pretty sure he has done some serious testing. It would have been good to see more pictures of his shop to answer: What does he connect to that 2 steam outlet? Does he have water for each cat plumbed? What goes to and from the control box location. What kind of electric power is available to start it up? I do recall quite a long time ago on Rossi's blog someone suggesting that he will need to test every unit before attempting to run them in parallel. He basically said only an idiot would do otherwise and he was well beyond that. My guess is that he is working on the controls. Making sure each cat can start, self-sustain, and stop on demand... with minimal chance of melting or malfunctioning. Rossi has a team of people working on this project--nobody seems to know how many people, but one thing is for sure.. progress is being made, and besides Rossi, nobody is leaking information. Surely Rossi will will keep people a safe distance away from the container when it is running. - Brad Take it from an engineer. He tested it as soon as it was assembled. He might not have run it at capacity; but, it's been tested. Look at the corrosion on the module tested on Oct. 6. All that did not occur on that day. We don't build stuff to look at. :-) T
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
David Roberson dlrober...@aol.com wrote: I asked Mr. Rossi whether or not he has tested several ECATS together in a moderate sized configuration to determine how well they function as a team. He responded yes to my query. He further stated that he plans to activate them in groups of 6 as he powers up the entire system. Well, that is a relief. I am glad he said that. I hope it is true. I suspect that some of the things he says on his blog may not be true, especially paired assertions in the form of X and Not X. I listed some here: http://www.peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:Andrea_A._Rossi_Cold_Fusion_Generator:Rossi%27s_Hints As I said, he could be playing the daredevil. He does that, sometimes. Quite convincingly! It is not mere role playing; he is a daredevil. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
ecat builder ecatbuil...@gmail.com wrote: Rossi has a team of people working on this project--nobody seems to know how many people . . . Five, I believe. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
When the E-Cat is turned off, there is still a hot iron core at 600 - 1000C, depending on who you listen to. It has lead shielding. If there are adjacent cats, they will also heat up, storing additional heat. Depending on the description, this may or may not be in the bottom; it may or may not be connected to the heat exchanger. This is not a calc but I agree with Jed. I worked some years ago in a steel mill. When water meets 600-1000C metal ka-boom. At lower temps the specific heat of vaporization of water greatly exceeds the specific heat of a metal. Frank Z
Re: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
On 11-10-18 10:13 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote: Again, I told him that. He response was to accuse me of sabotaging his work, and to blame me for his decision to make the Oct. 28 test private. So this test is to be private? What does that mean, really? Does it mean we'll have to take the word of Rossi and one or two of his close associates as to whether the thing worked or not? I thought he was going to have a small horde of top scientists view this demonstration. Didn't he say something to that effect, a couple months back?
RE: [Vo]:Is it possible Rossi has already tested his 1 MW prototype behind closed doors?
Well - everyone who has followed this story for the last year (or twenty years for some of us) should perhaps go on record in the next few days with their well-considered predictions, as Terry has ventured. And not just a prediction but a rationale for the justifying their slant on the outcome of the 28th, with details based on what we have learned in following the LENR field as it has matured since shortly after the 1989 PF 'pathological' bombshell. We can then look back, on Oct 29 an thereafter, and perhaps learn something from the clarity of our ongoing thought process at understanding this field; and then analyze why we were either too optimistic, too pessimistic or right-on. Here is mine. Based on the last Rossi show-and-tell, and the fact that it was terminated early after about a four-hour stretch of run-time with minimal input, and looking at the rapid descent at the end of that run, my assumption is that an average unit will perform for a slightly longer period with little input - and then it invariably it goes into some kind of quiescent mode. An individual fat-Cat may run longer than 4 hours on the average run, and he probably expected at least 8 hours based on the original time schedule. But also - it was clear (to a few of us) that Rossi had most likely faced this exact problem before (rapid die-off), and knew that he could not resuscitate the reaction, once it starts to decline rapidly like that. That collection of facts forms the real reason that he wants a lot of units humming along in unison - since even if only a quarter (1/4th) of them are 'hot' at any given moment, those few essentially carry everything else. Perhaps he can revive most of them after a few hours quiescence - so that there are always a decent percentage which are 'hot'. We cannot even guess at all the ramifications yet. There is no indication how long a putative quiescent period would be before another hot run is possible. The problem is that if you force the reaction - as Vince Cockeram did years ago, then you will likely face the runaway problem and have the same kind of meltdown that Vince suffered. His experience is the best parallel that has any amount of comparative detail to this - at least in the public record. Based on that episode, and knowing that Rossi will again terminate the show-and-tell of October 28 after only a short time, probably after no more than 12 hours - I think it is fair to say that he could get up to a decent fraction of a megawatt in average power and a net of well over a megawatt-hour of net energy in total, possibly over two - but that he will again shut it down prematurely, and will still claim it as a grand success. My guess is that he will get the power level up to about the 250 kW level in the first 3-4 hours, and that he will average near or less than that power level for the next 8; following which, when the output starts to drop fast, he will terminate the show at about the 12th hour, with an average of about 200 kWhr over the entire 12 hour run, or a net output of 2.4 megawatt-hours delivered... and, again, of course he will call this a grand success. After all - he labeled this set-up as a megawatt device and (correct me if I am wrong on this precise label) NEVER does Rossi specifically call it a megawatt hour device. And if you assumed this, then you may be disappointed that this little semantic trick gives him a gigantic cushion to deliver much more than a net megawatt of output in a full 12 hour demo Which of course will not please everyone ... but Rossi will be gloating ... even if that the trailer couldn't warm a teapot if it goes quiescent for a longer period than expected... such as - if he had to start it all up again on the 29th. Jones -Original Message- From: Terry Blanton I certainly hope Rossi has already rehearsed the whole demo at 100% capacity. Take it from an engineer. He tested it as soon as it was assembled. He might not have run it at capacity; but, it's been tested. Look at the corrosion on the module tested on Oct. 6. All that did not occur on that day. We don't build stuff to look at. :-) It will work on 10/28. I predict, based on numbers bashed around here, it will run at 800 kW. It looks like he has check valves on each module preventing blow back on non working modules. I hope he also has safety valves. T attachment: winmail.dat
