I must disagree with Conway's assertion that we have a good junior program
and it is the NCAA and JUCO programs.  By the time they get to be 18 years
old it is way too late to really develop the sport.  Some sort of widespread
programs need to start before age 10 so that kids are as exposed to
opportunities to "play" track as they are to baseball or soccer.

Given its focus on elites only, the limitations imposed by the major sports
like football, and Title IX, the NCAA does a tremendous job in its limited
arena.  And it is certainly true that 98% of our Olympic T&F athletes are
developed by NCAA programs (no surprise since they are the only game in
town).

But the NCAA will not and maybe cannot be anything more than a small piece
of the overall puzzle.  There is loads of blame to go around, but the
scenario is something like this:

1. 80% or more of the potential track stars get involved enough in another
sport before high school that they never try track.

2. Another 15% end up doing another sport in high school - with no real
exposure to youth track programs in the U.S. compared to other sports, this
is no surprise.

3. Of the 5% that do compete in high school, 2% never reach their potential
due to the sorry state of the "average" high school program and the low pay
and high turnover among coaches.  These 2% never compete in college.

4. Of the 3% that make it to an NCAA program, 1.5% of those are victims of
poor coaches who are not able to focus on individual needs or programs that
are not supportive or Title IX cuts.

5. Of the 1.5% that are successful in the NCAA, only 1% are able to really
pursue track due to the lack of post-collegiate support.

These percentages are intended to illustrate the basic premise, not as
anything like "real" percentages.

So what can USATF do?  It can certainly address #1 and #5 and have some
impact on #2.  But it's not hard to see that the current focus of USATF is
on the 1% of the potential stars, not on the 80% we are losing before they
even get to high school.

- Ed Parrot
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

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