On 02/06/2013 04:20 PM, Craig wrote: > On 02/06/2013 04:08 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote: >> >> It is a myth that temperatures have not increased in 16 years. The >> people making this claim started with the highest outlier point 16 >> years ago. See: >> > > I don't agree with that, but you can see it here: > > http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/ihadcrut4110_-180-180E_-90-90N_n_1998:2013.png >
Actually, we can calculate this value. I started with Jan 1948 and took the trend line up until Jan 1998. Then I extended this trend line unto the end of the data set at Dec 2011. This gave us a projected temperature value of 0.282 above the entire mean of the HadSST3 series for Dec, 2011. (My dataset is using the global sea surface temperatures.) Then I took the standard deviation over the whole set of data from Jan 1948 - Dec 2011, and this was 0.177. So the final value should be within 0.282 +/- 0.177 off the mean, which would be 0.105 to .459, and it is within one standard deviation with a value of 0.363, which is still ABOVE the 50 year trend line. Here's a graph: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B4QESdNmbCJSbFFScjJZdUhWdU0/edit?usp=sharing So the temperature stall is still above the 50 year trend line, and can continue flat for quite some time before it falls below the first standard deviation. Craig
