Terry Blanton <hohlr...@gmail.com> wrote:
> I agree that the fossil fuel crew is going to come at us with loaded guns >> once the true potential of LENR is understood. >> >> These are not stupid people. They already realize the potential. > I disagree. I have had some interaction with these people. I think they are stupid, and they do not fully realize the potential. They understand it, but they do not actually grasp it. They resemble the top managers at DEC, Data General and the other minicomputer companies when confronted by microcomputers. Those people said the right things, and claimed they would expand their product lines to include microcomputers, but they never did. Generally speaking, when an industry undergoes a radical transformation, the leading, established companies do not make the transition. They go out of business instead. See Christensen's book "The Innovator's Dilemma." > Most, like Shell's S.T.E.P. program are investing in new energy. > I predict they will not touch cold fusion until it is far too late. > Why would Big Oil want to fight when they could join? > Because: 1. They have no relevant expertise and 2. Although cold fusion is likely to expand the economy in the long term, the portion of the economy devoted directly to the production of energy will contract by a factor a thousand or more soon after cold fusion is introduced. That is to say, the amount of money spent on primary energy production will resemble the amount of money spent making ice after refrigeration was invented, or the amount spent on typewriters and adding machines after hand calculators and microcomputers were invented. Note that before refrigeration, people used to make a good living cutting ice on ponds, storing it, and selling it in summer. After 1900 or so, ice was produced by refrigeration. However, well into the 1920s people still made a living delivering large chunks of ice for home iceboxes. That was before home refrigerators became cheap and popular. > And don't worry. What remains of cheap fossil energy will be harvested. > After all, free energy isn't really free. There will always be a market > for the oil at some price. > But the price will be so low, it will not be worth pumping the oil from the ground or shipping it long distances. It will synthesized locally, on demand, from garbage and water, or coal and water, or from air and water. As I said, selling from the ground after cold fusion would be like trying to sell ice cut from ponds today. - Jed
