On Mon, Feb 16, 2009 at 3:40 PM, Thomas Dalton <thomas.dal...@gmail.com> wrote:

> I'm just going by the statistics, I'm not making any judgements based
> on anything else. At the moment, we seem to be following a logistic
> curve which levels out at around 3.5 million articles in around
> 2013-14. (It's asymptotic, but it will be pretty much there by then.)
>

So far, "low-hanging fruit" has dominated the growth pattern of
Wikipedia.  Rather than approaching a horizontal asymptote, we're
probably approaching a stable growth rate (i.e., an oblique
asymptote), since it's obvious that the number of potential articles
yet to be written is not the limiting factor.  Rather we're limited by
a product of potential articles and users interested in those
articles.

But statistically it's probably impossible to know that just from the
data, since low-hanging fruit swamps longer-term trends.

-Sage (User:Ragesoss)

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