Matt: As robots do more complex tasks, the cost of programming them will go up. It is only the hardware that is getting cheaper.
You've missed the whole point of AGI. An AGI (or sub-AGI) robot that doesn't need to be reprogrammed for evernew tasks saves a fortune. AGI is about generally programmed robots that can automatically be put to do endless specific tasks and will be invaluable in industry, domestic and private spheres - even if their range is at first extremely limited. The cost of the *general programs* will go up as they become more and more sophisticated and robots become able to go further afield, but the specific endless re-applications of them will be extremely cheap. Nobody in AGI, AFAIK, understands this - people wouldn't be arguing about how do you test AGI. An AGI robot will be self-evidently, obviously AGI - self-evidently generally applicable to endless simple manual and locomotive tasks.
If you want to do costings, this is where there's a need. Take say a car factory or similar, and consider if one or a v. few robots could automatically be re-applied to all or most of the current robot tasks which have to be programmed separately. AGI means an end of specific/specialist programming - that's where you save big bucks.
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