On Mon, Jan 7, 2013 at 4:25 PM, Aaron Hosford <[email protected]> wrote: > > Reality is the best source to consult about reality. Why write a book about > how to clean a house if your audience can just watch someone doing it, and > ask appropriate questions when it gets stumped? And once a robot has learned > a task, the information can be copied without further human demonstration. So > maybe "programming" will eventually come to mean "demonstrating a task for a > robot" and cease having anything to do with writing code.
What is your estimate of the cost of training a robot to clean houses? Assume you have enough computing power (say, 10 petaflops and 1 petabyte), but no software. Or maybe you can name existing software that might be useful. In order for a robot to watch someone clean, it first has to be programmed to see. Humans learn to see after training on about 1 petabyte of high resolution video. Assume you can download all of Youtube, although this might not be all you need and it will take a lot of effort just to discover this fact. In order for a robot to ask questions and understand the answers, it must also have a language model grounded in sensory experience and action. (Watson was a $30 million effort and was not grounded). You also have to add hearing, speech recognition, and motor control. It takes a baby a year to learn to walk. How long will it take to train a robot? I assume that knowledge can be copied to identical robots. There will be some training cost paid to human teachers for any job that is even slightly different. How much will it cost to train robots to do all the work that humans do? We can already train robots to perform repetitive motions by guiding its manipulator. This isn't the same thing as a human picking up an object, guided by vision and tactile feedback. That is still a mostly unsolved problem. -- -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
