Here are some minor details we don't know about the future. Will we
live in a virtual utopia with magic genies, or in a real world where
we fear death and then die? Will humans be killed by a gray goo
accident, a robot apocalypse, a genetically engineered pathogen, a
paperclip maximizer, or a threat that we cannot yet imagine? Will
there be a singularity? Will we build a Dyson sphere and travel to the
stars, or just go extinct? Will we solve the problems of aging and
uploading? What will be the world population in 2100 to the nearest
billion? What countries will be at war in 5 years? Will it rain on
this day next month? Will stocks go up or down tomorrow?

Will the future be like the Jetsons, the Matrix, Terminator, or Star
Wars? You only have to look at past predictions like Orwell's "1984",
or "2001, A Space Odyssey", to know that we aren't very good at
predicting the future.

-- 
-- Matt Mahoney, [email protected]


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AGI
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