Hi,
On a related subject, I argued in What is Thought? that the hard
problem was not processor speed for running the AI, but coding the
software,
This is definitely true.
However, processor speed for research is often a significant issue.
With faster processors, it would be quicker to run tests verifying or
refuting various hypotheses about various AI algorithms. Lacking a
rigorous science of AI algorithms and structures, the computational
resources needed to create an AGI may exceed significantly those
required to run an AGI.
For instance, your Hayek algorithms runs rather slowly, and
experimentation with variations on Hayek would certainly be more fun
if processors were a few orders of magnitude faster ;-)
and estimated that evolution had gone through very roughly
10^35 viruses since the dawn of time, as very rough estimate of raw power
available to it for software discovery.
Dan Fischer did a similar physicist's estimate, coming up with 10^35 bacteria.
However, Warren has recently done some digging
on the subject, and come up with what seems to be a better estimate
that 10^44 bacteria have lived on Earth.
However, evolution is not doing software design using anywhere near
the same process that we human scientists are. So I don't think these
sorts of calculations are very directly relevant...
-- Ben
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