This is a very optimistic prediction, since 2015 is only seven years from now. It implies a highly concerted space race type of effort towards AGI, with associated funding levels and a few conceptual breakthroughs along the way.
I would be cautious about claiming that conscious machines will arrive in less than a decade, but it all depends upon what is meant by "conscious". Under some definitions of consciousness victory could already be proclaimed. Since we don't yet know what the neuronal correlates of consciousness are (although there are a few theories) this is a fairly meaningless prediction. Also it's a mistake to assume that because because someone works for a major company that their views are more valuable than others working in the same field. On 17/10/2007, Edward W. Porter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > In today's KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in which > British Telecom's futurologist is predicting conscious machines by 2015 and > one brighter than people by 2020. > > I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a > furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the public in > his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the extent to > which the tide is turning. As I have said before on this list: "The race > has begun." > > (The article isn't really that valuable in terms of explaining things > those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but is its evidence > of the changing human collective consciousness on subjects relating to the > singularity. Its link is *** > http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1*<http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1>) > > Edward W. Porter > Porter & Associates > 24 String Bridge S12 > Exeter, NH 03833 > (617) 494-1722 > Fax (617) 494-1822 > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > ------------------------------ > This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email > To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: > http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&; > ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=54612774-f506b1
