This meta-discussion, about people's opinions about AGIs probabilities of being realized within a given timeframe, actually is crucial. These opinions can shape their actions towards AGI, regardless of their correctness.
As the public is going to be more and more aware of the various scenarios surrounding AGIs, as a concrete possibility, and not a science fiction or futurologist dream, the turning tide will also bring with itself a the flotsam of active resistance, towards AGIs in practice, but also AGI theory, and research. In this context, in my opinion, it is a fundamental task of the Singularity Institute to formulate sharp policy recommendations, and be ready with detailed answers to the various criticisms that will emerge. The levels of these answers have to be both divulgative, and technical, for different audiences. The criticism, not necessarily constructive, is mainly going to come from those established interests in the field public service, and industrial organizations that are likely to be disrupted by even below-human level AGI. During the Summit there was a stunning prediction, if I am not mistaken by Peter Thiel, who said that the leading corporations on the planet will be run by their MIS and ERP systems. There is no need for a qualitative change for this, and still it will potentially be a very dramatic impact on the hierarchies of enterprises, and the white collar jobs they employ. (How many middle managers are already today nothing but slow and unreliable interfaces between computer systems that would be much ore useful if directly connected?) The next generation of Facebook-type applications, applied to social systems of increasing complexity, entire countries, starting maybe with technologically friendly and not necessarily democratic ones, or just authoritarian enough, like Malaysia or Indonesia, entire countries are going to be managed and run by these systems as well. Not as a planned economy, but as a flexible, bottom-up organism that achieves a very high level of efficiency. When Christine Petersen, again at the Summit, referred to the need of managing the debate process in an intelligent manner, she expressed the feeling, in my opinion based on her experience with the nanotech field, that we must pro-actively involve in the dialog those stakeholders in society who are not technically prepared, but who will nonetheless be crucial in shaping the constraints of future's development. -- -------- David Orban www.davidorban.com skype davidorban sl davidorban On 10/17/07, Bob Mottram <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > This is a very optimistic prediction, since 2015 is only seven years from > now. It implies a highly concerted space race type of effort towards AGI, > with associated funding levels and a few conceptual breakthroughs along the > way. > > I would be cautious about claiming that conscious machines will arrive in > less than a decade, but it all depends upon what is meant by "conscious". > Under some definitions of consciousness victory could already be > proclaimed. Since we don't yet know what the neuronal correlates of > consciousness are (although there are a few theories) this is a fairly > meaningless prediction. > > Also it's a mistake to assume that because because someone works for a > major company that their views are more valuable than others working in the > same field. > > > On 17/10/2007, Edward W. Porter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > In today's KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in which > > British Telecom's futurologist is predicting conscious machines by 2015 and > > one brighter than people by 2020. > > > > I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a > > furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the public in > > his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the extent to > > which the tide is turning. As I have said before on this list: "The race > > has begun." > > > > (The article isn't really that valuable in terms of explaining things > > those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but is its evidence > > of the changing human collective consciousness on subjects relating to the > > singularity. Its link is > > ***http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1 > > *<http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1>) > > > > Edward W. Porter > > Porter & Associates > > 24 String Bridge S12 > > Exeter, NH 03833 > > (617) 494-1722 > > Fax (617) 494-1822 > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > ------------------------------ > > This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email > > To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: > > http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&; > > > > ------------------------------ > This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email > To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: > http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&; ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=54731766-b14777
