Despite these arguments there are good reasons for caution. When you look at the history of AI research one thing tends to stand out - some people never seem to learn of the dangers of hype. Having been around for a while I've heard many individuals make a "ten years to SAI" type of prediction, and ten years later they were proved wrong.
Being optimistic is a good quality, but if hopes are raised too far inevitably a backlash ensues (investors become frustrated/disillusioned and funds get withdrawn). I think people who are seriously interested in the technology should be more measured in their statements, and be honest about the degrees of uncertainty involved. On 17/10/2007, Edward W. Porter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > THERE IS A REAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOW AND 20 YEARS AGO. > > FIRST WE WILL HAVE ROUGHLY BRIAN LEVEL HARDWARE AT COMMERCIALLYH VIABLE > PRICES IN A FEW YEARS. > > SECOND, MANY OF US HAVE A MUCH MORE DETAILED IDEA OF HOW TO ATTACK ALMOST > ALL OF THE HARD PROBLEMS IN AGI. > > Edward W. Porter > Porter & Associates > 24 String Bridge S12 > Exeter, NH 03833 > (617) 494-1722 > Fax (617) 494-1822 > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Richard Loosemore [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2007 4:45 PM > To: [email protected] > Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast > > > Edward W. Porter wrote: > > In today's KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in > > which > > British Telecom's futurologist is predicting conscious machines by 2015 > > and one brighter than people by 2020. > > > > I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a > > furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the public > > > in his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the > > extent to which the tide is turning. As I have said before on this > > list: "The race has begun." > > > > (The article isn't really that valuable in terms of explaining things > > those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but is its > > evidence of the changing human collective consciousness on subjects > > relating to the singularity. Its link is > > > ___http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1_ > ) > > I think the same guy made the same prediction when I met him at a > workshop 20 years ago. > > > > Richard Loosemore > > ----- > This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email > To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: > http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&; > > ----- > This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email > To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: > http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&; > ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=54868598-8bc2c9
