RE Bob Mottram'S post.
This is a very optimistic prediction, since 2015 is only seven years from now. It implies a highly concerted space race type of effort towards AGI, with associated funding levels and a few conceptual breakthroughs along the way. 2015 IS NOT GUARANTEED, BUT IT IS MOST PROBABLY DOABLE IF SIGNIFICANT MONEY IS PLOWED INTO THE FIELD. (AND BY SIGNIFICANT MONEY WE ARE TALKING CHUMP CHANGE TO THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING THAT WHAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGY IN HUMAN HISTORY.) I would be cautious about claiming that conscious machines will arrive in less than a decade, but it all depends upon what is meant by "conscious". Under some definitions of consciousness victory could already be proclaimed. Since we don't yet know what the neuronal correlates of consciousness are (although there are a few theories) this is a fairly meaningless prediction. NOT NECESSARILY GUARANTEEING IT WILL HAVE A CONSCIOUSNESS LIKE YOU AND ME (IT MIGHT, BUT IT WOULD BE HARD TO KNOW), BUT RATHER I AM REFERRING TO A MACHINE THAT HAS A COMPLEX SELF-REFERENTIAL VERY DYNAMIC STATE THAT HAS MANY OF THE COMPUTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT I ASSOCIATE WITH HUMAN CONSCIOUSNESS. Also it's a mistake to assume that because because someone works for a major company that their views are more valuable than others working in the same field. I WASNT SAYING THIS GUY KNOW MORE THAN PEOPLE ON THIS LIST. I WAS REFERRING TO THE FACT THAT HE HAS A LABEL FUTUROLOGIST OF BRITISH TELECOM THAT MAKES HIM SEEM MORE CREDIBLE TO THE AVERAGE READER THAN ANY LABEL MOST OF THE PEOPLE ON THIS LIST HAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THEIR NAME. I WAS ALSO, ASSUMING THAT THIS GUY PROBABLY WANTS TO KEEP HIS JOB, SINCE IT SEEMS LIKE A JOB MANY PEOPLE WOULD KILL FOR, AND THUS HIS MAKING THIS STATEMENT INDICATES HIS BELIEF THAT IT WILL NOT DISPLEASE HIS EMPLOYER, WHICH IS A MAJOR TECHNOLOGY COMPANY. THUS, THIS ARTICLE REPRESENTS EVIDENCE THAT STATEMENTS THAT AGIS WITH HUMAN OR SUPER-HUMAN INTELLEGENCE ARE COMING WITHIN ROUGHLY A DECADE ARE INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY TO BE DISMISSED AS CRAZY, AS HAVE MOST OF MY STATEMENTS ABOUT AI FOR THE LAST 37 YEARS. Edward W. Porter Porter & Associates 24 String Bridge S12 Exeter, NH 03833 (617) 494-1722 Fax (617) 494-1822 [EMAIL PROTECTED] -----Original Message----- From: Bob Mottram [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2007 1:11 PM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast This is a very optimistic prediction, since 2015 is only seven years from now. It implies a highly concerted space race type of effort towards AGI, with associated funding levels and a few conceptual breakthroughs along the way. I would be cautious about claiming that conscious machines will arrive in less than a decade, but it all depends upon what is meant by "conscious". Under some definitions of consciousness victory could already be proclaimed. Since we don't yet know what the neuronal correlates of consciousness are (although there are a few theories) this is a fairly meaningless prediction. Also it's a mistake to assume that because because someone works for a major company that their views are more valuable than others working in the same field. On 17/10/2007, Edward W. Porter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: In today's KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in which British Telecom's futurologist is predicting conscious machines by 2015 and one brighter than people by 2020. I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the public in his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the extent to which the tide is turning. As I have said before on this list: "The race has begun." (The article isn't really that valuable in terms of explaining things those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but is its evidence of the changing human collective consciousness on subjects relating to the singularity. Its link is <http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1> http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1 ) Edward W. Porter Porter & Associates 24 String Bridge S12 Exeter, NH 03833 <chrome://skype_ff_toolbar_win/content/cb_transparent_l.gif> <chrome://skype_ff_toolbar_win/content/famfamfam/us.gif> <chrome://skype_ff_toolbar_win/content/space.gif> <chrome://skype_ff_toolbar_win/content/space.gif> <chrome://skype_ff_toolbar_win/content/arrow.gif> <chrome://skype_ff_toolbar_win/content/space.gif> <chrome://skype_ff_toolbar_win/content/space.gif> <chrome://skype_ff_toolbar_win/content/space.gif> <chrome://skype_ff_toolbar_win/content/space.gif> <chrome://skype_ff_toolbar_win/content/space.gif> <chrome://skype_ff_toolbar_win/content/space.gif> <chrome://skype_ff_toolbar_win/content/space.gif> (617) 494-1722 <chrome://skype_ff_toolbar_win/content/cb_transparent_r.gif> Fax (617) 494-1822 [EMAIL PROTECTED] _____ This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/? <http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&;> & _____ This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/? <http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&; > & ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=54745611-b635e9
