--- Linas Vepstas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> On Wed, Nov 07, 2007 at 08:38:40AM -0700, Derek Zahn wrote:
> > A large number of individuals on this list are "architecting" an AGI 
> > solution (or part of one) in their spare time.  I think that most of 
> > those efforts do not have meaningful answers to many of the questions, 
> > but rather intend to address AGI questions from a particular perspective. 
> 
> [...]
> >  
> > Probably most people like that are not "serious contenders" in the sense
> > of having a complete detailed plan for achieving a full AGI.  
> 
> And the "serious contenders" are a handful of small companies that
> seem unlikely to fill out a self-assesment status report card 
> revealing thier weaknesses and strengths to the competition.
> 
> Tell me again why *anyone* would want to fill this out?  
> If I had some neat whiz-bang thing, I know enough marketing
> to know that I should emphasize what its great at, rather 
> than placing large blaring red X's on the 19 check-boxes 
> that it sucks at.
> 
> I thought the point was to promote colaboration, but I don't 
> see how.  Do you really think you'll convince Cyc corp to
> use SUMO's upper ontology, or v.v.? Do you think that anyone
> working on a theorem prover will abandon it, to go work on 
> NARS, or v.v?
> 
> Most of the major projects already have articles on Wikipedia;
> I don't see much addition here except cruft.  Maybe I missed 
> the point; excuse me if I sound negative.

Maybe listing all the projects that have NOT achieved AGI might give us some
insight.

- Early attempts at AI like GPS [1] and the 1959 Russian-English translation
project seriously underestimated the difficulty of the problem.
- Later attempts like SHRDLU and Cyc seriously underestimated the difficulty
of the problem.
- Current AGI projects like Novamente are forging ahead, even though we STILL
do not know how much training data and computing power we need.
- Big companies like Google and IBM (Blue Brain) with massive data sets and
computing power are still doing basic research.
- Really smart people like Minsky, Kurzweil, and Yudkowsky are not trying to
actually build AGI.

1. A. Newell, H. A. Simon, "GPS: A Program that Simulates Human Thought",
Lernende Automaten, Munich: R. Oldenbourg KG, 1961.



-- Matt Mahoney, [EMAIL PROTECTED]

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