I don't think you actually can switch an app from free to paid in the Android market, without taking it down and renaming it.
In either case, it is hardly surprising to find downloads of free apps far exceeding paid apps. This is no different from the pattern you see with normal software - the "industry standard" conversion rate from downloads to sales is around 1%. I am actually very impressed by the numbers that Polyclef presents on his blog, with his Golf Solitaire lying around a 3% conversion, while Wordwise is a whopping 20% (though I suspect this may be due to fans of his previous game purchasing the new one. We shall see whether the conversion rate remains as high when/ if he presents more recent numbers). Low conversion rate from free to paid is something that should be expected by an app developer; it is simply part of the business. Generally speaking, I do not think think apps are much different from regular software. The main difference is that the gold rush mentality and the ease of throwing together an app makes a lot of developers think they can make a lot of money from a weekend's work. Consider that in the indie games development world, there are 1000s of would-be developers who try to make games - try it, and fail. Their products never make it to the market, because they are never finished. In the app world, though (especially in the open Android market), there is no such barrier. Anyone can publish, and a lot do. Add to this dedicated spammers, and you have the explanation for a major part of the long tail (about 30%). That too has to be viewed in the balance. While I nodded at Dan's comment about show business, I don't quite agree. Certainly, a breakout $100,000 success will require luck, but I do think that simply being smart and hard work will take you very far (polyclef again comes to mind). From my observations, a lot of things go into this kind of success; e.g., being able to correctly identify a niche/opportunity, a huge amount of hard work to deliver a polished product, and figuring out the most effective marketing method for the product (something which we coders very often ignore or are very bad at). Of course, even with all of these factors in place, there is no guarantee of success, but that is no different from any other endeavour in life. The real answer to the OP's question (which is, essentially, a variant of the eternal "How much money can I make?"), of course, is: 42 Regards, Michael A. On Sep 22, 10:55 pm, Indicator Veritatis <[email protected]> wrote: > You make some very good points in this post, supplying the balance > lacking in all the previous posts on this topic. But there is one > thing I have to correct: I said "rosy picture of glowing > success...that doesn't really tell us much". I did not say > 'outlandish'. > > The two are not the same. Even if we take at face value all the claims > made about such-and-such app making such-and-such figure, it really > doesn't tell us much. Why? Because as you yourself pointed out (thanks > for that, BTW), only about 3% of apps even break 1000 downloads. The > money makers are all doing far more downloads than that. So they are > quite the minority. > > That is an excellent example of the balance lacking in all the > previous posts on the topic. > > But here is another example: have you noticed how free apps in general > get more downloads than paid apps? Or what about apps that start out > free and turn into paid apps? Don't the download numbers then tend to > drop like a rock? > > I haven't actually checked the numbers on Google's Android Market, but > I did notice both these trends on SlideME. I can think of no reason > why the same trend would not occur on both (though I know Google > discourages turning free into paid). > > On Sep 22, 1:50 am, "Michael A." <[email protected]> wrote: > > > On Sep 21, 10:35 pm, Indicator Veritatis <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > So the moment the first post in this thread went up, I knew we were > > > going to see some responses painting a rosy picture of glowing > > > success. But that doesn't really tell us much. > > > I haven't seen any claims on this thread that I find outlandish by any > > means. > > > At, e.g., $3 a sale, $100 per day is only 33 sales per day = about > > 10-15K downloads over a year. There are several hundreds of paid apps > > that have broken the 10K downloads mark, so I am not surprised to see > > several people reporting such income. Note that both niko and Doug - > > the two who have cited >$100 a day, specifically point out that their > > apps have been on the market for a long time = most likely top ranked > > apps. These are not apps that have made big money for years - most > > likely their current level has only been reached in recent months as > > the number of Android devices has gone through the roof. > > > Of course, one should put their success in perspective by noting that > > of 45K+ paid apps, only about 3% have >1000 downloads and less than 1% > > have >5000 downloads (according to Androlib). So obviously, success of > > that kind is rare and not to be expected for the average app. > > > The sad thing is that, by iPhone standards, these tales of "glowing > > success" are laughable. Consider for instance Trism (big hit on the > > iPhone - sold 50K units in its first 2 months @ 5$) has yet to break > > the 500 download mark on Android. Obviously, success is all about > > being in the right place at the right time with the right product, but > > but such a huge disrepancy in sales can hardly be put down to only > > luck. I am looking forward to reading Polyclef's blog when he takes > > status of sales on iPhone/Android for his latest cross-platform app > > whether he finds the trend of iTunes being immensely superior to the > > Android market continuing. > > > Currently (again according to Androlib), Android has 27 paid apps with > > more than 50K sales. Only 1 (Robo Defense) has gone over 250K in > > sales. That should really tell people everything they need to know > > about the profitability of the market for a regular starting > > developer. > > > If you have the name recognition, of course, big hits are still > > possible. Angry Birds will certainly make a killing when it comes on > > the paid market. Judging by their download data, the Moron Test is > > making well over $600 a day now (5000 downloads between Jun 29 - Jul > > 11; 40,000 downloads from Jul 11 to Sep 7 @ $0.99). So really good > > sales are clearly possible, if you have the right IP. > > > Regards, > > > Michael A. > > > > On Sep 17, 7:40 am, TreKing <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > On Thu, Sep 16, 2010 at 5:22 PM, William Ferguson <william.ferguson.au@ > > > > > gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > Very droll. > > > > > Perhaps =P > > > > > But it's a good question. > > > > > Yes, it would definitely be very interesting to see some stats from > > > > various > > > > developers. > > > > > But it IS a fairly private / personal question not many people are > > > > going to > > > > be willing to answer. Notice how no one has actually answered the > > > > question, > > > > including the OP, save for the one person that was already blogging > > > > about it > > > > anyway. > > > > > BTW, poly, thanks for sharing and congrats on the success. When I'm > > > > making > > > > that much I'll be flaunting it too =P > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > TreKing <http://sites.google.com/site/rezmobileapps/treking> - Chicago > > > > transit tracking app for Android-powered devices -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Android Developers" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/android-developers?hl=en
